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Austin FC vs San Diego FC - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

USA USA

MLS Q2 Stadium, Austin, TX
Our Tip

Match Events

36'
Sub
Kolmanic Z. In: Svatok O.
Out: Kolmanic Z.
46'
Sub
Vazquez D. In: Bakambu C.
Out: Vazquez D.
50' Event
Godoy A.

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this MLS matchup, with the score ending 3-3.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

49%
Austin FC
35%
Draws
16%
San Diego FC
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Austin FC

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

49% / Medium Confidence
  • Austin FC have won more games recently than San Diego FC.
  • Austin FC are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 74.2%
Austin FC Clean Sheet 16%
San Diego FC Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Austin FC San Diego FC
Matches Played 28 28
Wins 10 7
Draws 7 7
Losses 11 14
Goals Scored 1.43 1.5
Goals Conceded 1.64 2.04
Expected Goals (xG) 1.81 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 27, 2026 MLS
Austin FC vs San Diego FC
3:3
May 14, 2026 MLS
San Diego FC vs Austin FC
5:0
Jun 1, 2025 MLS
San Diego FC vs Austin FC
2:0
Mar 23, 2025 MLS
Austin FC vs San Diego FC
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Austin FC Compare

Top Goalscorer Ramirez C.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Vazquez B.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.39
Avg xA / game 0.91

San Diego FC Compare

Top Goalscorer Godoy A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Ingvartsen M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Austin FC 84 / 100
San Diego FC 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Austin FC San Diego FC

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Austin FC Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 7:3
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

San Diego FC let in goals in 82% of their last 28 matches.

Historical meetings average 4.00 goals per match.

Austin FC scored in 75% of their last 28 games.

Recent resilience: Austin FC stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Austin FC VS San Diego FC
1.25 Goals Scored 1.75
1.25 Goals Conceded 2.38
88% Over 1.5 88%
38% Over 2.5 88%
13% Over 3.5 75%

Recent Form & Match History

Austin FC

(Home)
11 Oct
Austin FC
1 : 4
Nashville SC
27 Sept
Austin FC
3 : 3
San Diego FC
20 Sept
FC Dallas
0 : 0
Austin FC
13 Sept
Vancouver Whitecaps
1 : 2
Austin FC
10 Sept
Austin FC
1 : 1
Colorado Rapids
Page 1 of 6

San Diego FC

(Away)
10 Oct
New York Red Bulls
4 : 1
San Diego FC
27 Sept
Austin FC
3 : 3
San Diego FC
20 Sept
Inter Miami
2 : 2
San Diego FC
14 Sept
San Diego FC
0 : 5
Philadelphia Union
10 Sept
San Diego FC
2 : 3
San Jose Earthquakes
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Vancouver Whitecaps 28 15 6 7 61:30 51
2 St. Louis City 28 14 8 6 54:38 50
3 FC Dallas 28 13 8 7 52:45 47
4 San Jose Earthquakes 28 13 7 8 50:40 46
5 Houston Dynamo 28 13 6 9 36:34 45
6 Los Angeles FC 29 11 9 9 44:31 42
7 Seattle Sounders 28 11 8 9 38:35 41
8 Colorado Rapids 28 11 4 13 39:39 37
9 Los Angeles Galaxy 29 9 9 11 39:50 36
10 Portland Timbers 28 9 6 13 51:54 33
11 Real Salt Lake 28 9 5 14 41:46 32
12 San Diego FC 28 8 8 12 48:51 32
13 Austin FC 28 7 10 11 36:51 31
14 Minnesota United 28 7 9 12 42:51 30
15 Sporting Kansas City 28 6 4 18 35:68 22
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs)
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Nashville SC 28 19 6 3 59:22 63
2 Inter Miami 28 13 10 5 68:50 49
3 Chicago Fire 28 14 6 8 51:40 48
4 New England Revolution 28 14 4 10 45:39 46
5 Charlotte FC 28 13 7 8 50:40 46
6 Philadelphia Union 28 12 6 10 56:45 42
7 Orlando City 28 11 4 13 51:66 37
8 New York Red Bulls 28 10 6 12 38:52 36
9 FC Cincinnati 27 9 9 9 58:65 36
10 New York City 28 8 9 11 42:38 33
11 Toronto FC 28 7 11 10 41:52 32
12 DC United 27 6 12 9 34:46 30
13 Columbus Crew 28 8 5 15 41:46 29
14 Atlanta United 28 7 6 15 33:48 27
15 CF Montreal 28 6 6 16 35:56 24
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs)
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs)