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Austin FC vs San Jose Earthquakes - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

USA USA

MLS Q2 Stadium, Austin, TX
Austin FC Logo

Austin FC

1 - 1
FT
San Jose Earthquakes Logo

San Jose Earthquakes

Our Tip

Match Events

8' Event
Leroux B.
Assist: Tsakiris N.
10'
Sabovic B.
61'
Sub
Gallagher J. In: Kolmanic Z.
Out: Gallagher J.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this MLS matchup, with the score ending 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

23%
Austin FC
35%
Draws
42%
San Jose Earthquakes
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: San Jose Earthquakes

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

42% / Low Confidence
  • San Jose Earthquakes have won more games recently than Austin FC.
  • Model gives San Jose Earthquakes a 42% chance of winning this.
  • Regular MLS form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 77.8%
Austin FC Clean Sheet 17%
San Jose Earthquakes Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Austin FC San Jose Earthquakes
Matches Played 28 28
Wins 10 12
Draws 7 7
Losses 11 9
Goals Scored 1.43 1.82
Goals Conceded 1.64 1.61
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 6, 2026 MLS
Austin FC vs San Jose Earthquakes
1:1
Apr 23, 2026 MLS
San Jose Earthquakes vs Austin FC
5:1
Oct 19, 2025 MLS
San Jose Earthquakes vs Austin FC
2:1
Aug 31, 2025 MLS
Austin FC vs San Jose Earthquakes
3:1
Jul 9, 2025 US Open Cup
San Jose Earthquakes vs Austin FC
2:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Austin FC Compare

Top Goalscorer Guilherme Biro
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

San Jose Earthquakes Compare

Top Goalscorer Leroux B.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Austin FC 28 / 100
San Jose Earthquakes 38 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Austin FC San Jose Earthquakes

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick San Jose Earthquakes Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: San Jose Earthquakes conceded in 82% of 28 recent games.

H2H data points to 4.00 goals as a typical output.

Austin FC found the back of the net in 75% of recent matches (28 games).

Recent resilience: Austin FC stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Austin FC VS San Jose Earthquakes
1.25 Goals Scored 1.5
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.5
88% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Austin FC

(Home)
11 Oct
Austin FC
1 : 4
Nashville SC
27 Sept
Austin FC
3 : 3
San Diego FC
20 Sept
FC Dallas
0 : 0
Austin FC
13 Sept
Vancouver Whitecaps
1 : 2
Austin FC
10 Sept
Austin FC
1 : 1
Colorado Rapids
Page 1 of 6

San Jose Earthquakes

(Away)
11 Oct
Colorado Rapids
1 : 1
San Jose Earthquakes
27 Sept
San Jose Earthquakes
3 : 1
Portland Timbers
19 Sept
San Jose Earthquakes
2 : 2
Los Angeles FC
13 Sept
San Jose Earthquakes
1 : 0
Houston Dynamo
10 Sept
San Diego FC
2 : 3
San Jose Earthquakes
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Vancouver Whitecaps 28 15 6 7 61:30 51
2 St. Louis City 27 13 8 6 48:36 47
3 FC Dallas 28 13 8 7 52:45 47
4 San Jose Earthquakes 28 13 7 8 50:40 46
5 Houston Dynamo 28 13 6 9 36:34 45
6 Los Angeles FC 29 11 9 9 44:31 42
7 Seattle Sounders 28 11 8 9 38:35 41
8 Colorado Rapids 28 11 4 13 39:39 37
9 Los Angeles Galaxy 28 9 9 10 37:44 36
10 Portland Timbers 28 9 6 13 51:54 33
11 Real Salt Lake 28 9 5 14 41:46 32
12 San Diego FC 28 8 8 12 48:51 32
13 Austin FC 28 7 10 11 36:51 31
14 Minnesota United 28 7 9 12 42:51 30
15 Sporting Kansas City 28 6 4 18 35:68 22
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs)
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Nashville SC 28 19 6 3 59:22 63
2 Inter Miami 28 13 10 5 68:50 49
3 Chicago Fire 28 14 6 8 51:40 48
4 New England Revolution 28 14 4 10 45:39 46
5 Charlotte FC 28 13 7 8 50:40 46
6 Philadelphia Union 28 12 6 10 56:45 42
7 Orlando City 28 11 4 13 51:66 37
8 New York Red Bulls 28 10 6 12 38:52 36
9 FC Cincinnati 27 9 9 9 58:65 36
10 New York City 28 8 9 11 42:38 33
11 Toronto FC 28 7 11 10 41:52 32
12 DC United 27 6 12 9 34:46 30
13 Columbus Crew 28 8 5 15 41:46 29
14 Atlanta United 28 7 6 15 33:48 27
15 CF Montreal 28 6 6 16 35:56 24
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs)
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs)