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Stadium Background

Auxerre vs Brest

France France

Ligue 1 2025/2026 Stade de l'Abbé-Deschamps, Auxerre
Our Tip

Match Events

6'
Leon D.
8'
Sub
Oppegard F. In: De Percin T.
Out: Oppegard F.
24' Event
Okoh B.
Assist: Faivre R.

AI Match Summary

The Ligue 1 2025/2026 game between Auxerre and Brest finished 3-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Auxerre.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

30%
Auxerre
35%
Draws
35%
Brest
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

35% / Low Confidence
  • Brest carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model gives Auxerre a 36% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.8%
Auxerre Clean Sheet 20%
Brest Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Auxerre Brest
Matches Played 26 29
Wins 7 8
Draws 9 9
Losses 10 12
Goals Scored 1.35 1.31
Goals Conceded 1.38 1.66
Expected Goals (xG) 1.56 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 21, 2026 Ligue 1
Auxerre vs Brest
3:0
Jan 4, 2026 Ligue 1
Brest vs Auxerre
2:0
Feb 14, 2025 Ligue 1
Brest vs Auxerre
2:2
Sep 27, 2024 Ligue 1
Auxerre vs Brest
3:0
May 14, 2023 Ligue 1
Brest vs Auxerre
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Auxerre Compare

Top Goalscorer Okoh B.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Namaso D.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.2
Avg xA / game 0.78

Brest Compare

Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Auxerre 36 / 100
Brest 33 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Auxerre Brest

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Auxerre scored in 65% of their last 26 outings.

Brest's defensive record shows goals conceded in 79% of 29 matches.

These sides typically produce 2.60 goals when they meet.

Solid form: Auxerre remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Auxerre VS Brest
1.25 Goals Scored 1.5
0.75 Goals Conceded 1.88
63% Over 1.5 100%
25% Over 2.5 63%
13% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Auxerre

(Home)
22 Aug
Lens
5 : 2
Auxerre
15 Aug
Werder Bremen
0 : 1
Auxerre
08 Aug
Auxerre
1 : 1
Troyes
01 Aug
Sochaux
1 : 1
Auxerre
25 Jul
Auxerre
1 : 2
Orleans
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Brest

(Away)
22 Aug
Le Mans
2 : 2
Brest
16 Aug
Nottingham
2 : 0
Brest
08 Aug
Brest
2 : 2
Venezia
05 Aug
Stade Briochin
1 : 2
Brest
01 Aug
Brest
3 : 3
Guingamp
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 PSG 34 24 4 6 74:29 76
2 Lens 34 22 4 8 66:35 70
3 Lille 34 18 7 9 52:37 61
4 Lyon 34 18 6 10 53:40 60
5 Marseille 34 18 5 11 63:45 59
6 Rennes 34 17 8 9 59:50 59
7 Monaco 34 16 6 12 60:54 54
8 Strasbourg 34 15 8 11 58:47 53
9 Toulouse 34 12 9 13 47:46 45
10 Lorient 34 11 12 11 48:51 45
11 Paris FC 34 11 11 12 47:50 44
12 Brest 34 10 9 15 43:55 39
13 Angers 34 9 9 16 29:48 36
14 Le Havre 34 7 14 13 32:44 35
15 Auxerre 34 8 10 16 34:44 34
16 Nice 34 7 11 16 37:60 32
17 Nantes 34 5 9 20 29:52 24
18 Metz 34 3 8 23 32:76 17
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - Ligue 1 2025/2026 (Relegation - Play Offs)
Relegation - Ligue 2 (Main)