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Auxerre W vs Toulouse W

France France

Seconde Ligue Women Stade de l'Abbé-Deschamps
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Auxerre W play Toulouse W in the Seconde Ligue Women. It looks like a close match. Recently, Auxerre W averaged 1.52 goals scored and 1.41 conceded. Toulouse W averaged 1.9 goals scored and 1.48 conceded. In past meetings, Auxerre W won 0, Toulouse W won 2, and they drew 0. Their last match on Feb 8, 2026 ended 1:2. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.00 for Auxerre W and 1.81 for Toulouse W. This points to a Toulouse W double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

35%
Auxerre W
15%
Draws
50%
Toulouse W
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Toulouse W

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

76% / High Confidence
  • Auxerre W picked up more points recently compared to Toulouse W.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.00 vs 1.81 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 63%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 90%
Over 1.5 Goals 80%
Over 2.5 Goals 63%
Over 3.5 Goals 38%
Over 4.5 Goals 19%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 53%
Auxerre W Clean Sheet 11%
Toulouse W Clean Sheet 15%
First Half Goal 72%
Second Half Goal 76%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Auxerre W Toulouse W
Matches Played 27 31
Wins 11 17
Draws 5 4
Losses 11 10
Goals Scored 1.52 1.9
Goals Conceded 1.41 1.48
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 2.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.25 0.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 8, 2026 Seconde Ligue Women
Auxerre W vs Toulouse W
1:2
Sep 20, 2025 Seconde Ligue Women
Toulouse W vs Auxerre W
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Auxerre W Compare

Top Goalscorer Mbele B.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Toulouse W Compare

Top Goalscorer Altunkulak S.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Champagnac S.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.16
Avg xA / game 1.32

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Auxerre W 34 / 100
Toulouse W 48 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Auxerre W Toulouse W

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Toulouse W or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +29.5%
3.70
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +10.3%
1.75
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Auxerre W attacking → ← attacking Toulouse W

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Auxerre W scored in 81% of their last 27 games.

Toulouse W let in goals in 61% of their last 31 matches.

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

Auxerre W went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Toulouse W lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Moderate
Risk Factor

Busy schedule: Managers might rest key players, which can affect team cohesion.

Risk Factor

Regular league game. Both sides need the points to climb the table.

Risk Factor

Pressure: A tense match where mistakes or cards can change things quickly.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

38 Points in last 5 55
1.13 Goals expected (xG) 2.38
1.25 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.88

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Toulouse W22154348:2149
2Saint-Malo W22124634:2840
3Le Mans W22123728:2039
4Auxerre W22105731:2535
5Grenoble W2297631:2434
6Lille W2295831:2532
7Thonon Evian W2294935:2931
8Nice W2285928:3129
9Reims W2276926:3327
10Metz W22641231:4222
11Rodez AF W22641216:3222
12Guingamp W22231717:469