Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Avai vs Santa Catarina

Brazil Brazil

Catarinense Dr. Aderbal Ramos da Silva (Ressacada), Florianópolis
Our Tip

Match Events

4' Event
Daniel Penha
9' Event
Daniel Penha
34'
Sub
Henrique Lordelo In: Renan Nunes
Out: Henrique Lordelo

AI Match Summary

Avai in this Catarinense tie, finishing 3-0. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

27%
Avai
33%
Draws
40%
Santa Catarina
Draw rate projection: 33% Favored: Santa Catarina

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / Medium Confidence
  • Avai have won more games recently than Santa Catarina.
  • 40% — that's where the model lands on Santa Catarina taking it.
  • Avai have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Avai, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • History favors Avai here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 90%
Over 1.5 Goals 80%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.400000000000006%
Avai Clean Sheet 14%
Santa Catarina Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Avai Santa Catarina
Matches Played 38 30
Wins 15 14
Draws 7 7
Losses 16 9
Goals Scored 1.63 1.4
Goals Conceded 1.75 0.8
Expected Goals (xG) 1.63 1.40
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.75 0.80

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 21, 2026 Catarinense
Avai vs Santa Catarina
3:0
Feb 14, 2026 Catarinense
Santa Catarina vs Avai
1:2
Jan 25, 2026 Catarinense
Santa Catarina vs Avai
3:1
Mar 8, 2025 Catarinense
Santa Catarina vs Avai
1:2
Jan 15, 2025 Catarinense
Avai vs Santa Catarina
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Avai Compare

Top Goalscorer Daniel Penha
2 Goals
Assists Leader Rafael Bilu
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.81

Santa Catarina Compare

Avg xG / game 1.27
Avg xA / game 0.78

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Avai 27 / 100
Santa Catarina 50 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Avai Santa Catarina

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick SAN Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Avai's goal record stands at 79% scoring rate across 38 recent games.

Santa Catarina's defensive record shows goals conceded in 63% of 30 matches.

H2H data points to 2.80 goals as a typical output.

Solid form: Avai remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Avai VS Santa Catarina
1.63 Goals Scored 1.4
1.75 Goals Conceded 0.8
100% Over 1.5 60%
88% Over 2.5 40%
38% Over 3.5 20%

Recent Form & Match History

Avai

(Home)
28 Jul
EC Juventude
1 : 0
Avai
21 Jul
Avai
2 : 1
America MG
17 Jul
Sao Bernardo
1 : 1
Avai
12 Jul
Avai
2 : 0
Nautico
06 Jul
Botafogo SP
3 : 1
Avai
Page 1 of 8

Santa Catarina

(Away)
27 Jun
Santa Catarina
1 : 2
EC Sao Jose (PA)
21 Jun
EC Sao Jose (PA)
1 : 1
Santa Catarina
07 Jun
Santa Catarina
1 : 0
FC Cascavel
31 May
Cianorte
1 : 3
Santa Catarina
23 May
Santa Catarina
1 : 0
Sao Luiz
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
Concordia2
Criciuma6
TBD-
Brusque-
Santa Catarina1
Avai5
TBD-
Camboriu-
Semi-finals
Criciuma1
Brusque0
Avai0
Camboriu1
Final
Criciuma4
Camboriu3