Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Avai vs Santa Catarina

Brazil Brazil

Catarinense Dr. Aderbal Ramos da Silva (Ressacada), Florianópolis
Our Tip

Match Events

4' Event
Daniel Penha
9' Event
Daniel Penha
34'
Sub
Henrique Lordelo In: Renan Nunes
Out: Henrique Lordelo

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 3-0. This leg finished 3-0.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

10%
Avai
20%
Draws
70%
Santa Catarina
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Santa Catarina

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / High Confidence
  • Santa Catarina average 1.33 goals a game right now, well clear of Avai's 1.3.
  • 70% — that's where the model lands on Santa Catarina taking it.
  • Both sides arrive with similar form. In a knockout tie, that makes this genuinely unpredictable.
  • Historical meetings favor Avai, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • History favors Avai here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 33.2%
Avai Clean Sheet 18%
Santa Catarina Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Avai Santa Catarina
Matches Played 33 30
Wins 13 13
Draws 5 8
Losses 15 9
Goals Scored 1.3 1.33
Goals Conceded 1.27 1.07
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 21, 2026 Catarinense
Avai vs Santa Catarina
3:0
Feb 14, 2026 Catarinense
Santa Catarina vs Avai
1:2
Jan 25, 2026 Catarinense
Santa Catarina vs Avai
3:1
Mar 8, 2025 Catarinense
Santa Catarina vs Avai
1:2
Jan 15, 2025 Catarinense
Avai vs Santa Catarina
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Avai Compare

Top Goalscorer Daniel Penha
2 Goals
Assists Leader Rafael Bilu
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Santa Catarina Compare

Avg xG / game 1.19
Avg xA / game 0.73

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Avai 28 / 100
Santa Catarina 50 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Avai Santa Catarina

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Santa Catarina Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Avai's goal record stands at 76% scoring rate across 33 recent games.

Santa Catarina's defensive record shows goals conceded in 70% of 30 matches.

H2H data points to 2.80 goals as a typical output.

Solid form: Avai remains unbeaten in 1 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Avai VS Santa Catarina
1 Goals Scored 1.5
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.25
63% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 75%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Avai

(Home)
20 Sept
Goias
2 : 1
Avai
15 Sept
Avai
1 : 1
Vila Nova FC
09 Sept
Fortaleza
1 : 0
Avai
05 Sept
Novorizontino
3 : 1
Avai
30 Aug
Avai
0 : 1
Atletico GO
Page 1 of 7

Santa Catarina

(Away)
20 Sept
Santa Catarina
1 : 2
Figueirense
13 Sept
Santa Catarina
2 : 1
Marcilio Dias
06 Sept
Nacao
2 : 2
Santa Catarina
29 Aug
Blumenau
0 : 1
Santa Catarina
27 Jun
Santa Catarina
1 : 2
EC Sao Jose (PA)
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
Concordia 2
Criciuma 6
TBD -
Brusque -
Santa Catarina 1
Avai 5
TBD -
Camboriu -
Semi-finals
Criciuma 1
Brusque 0
Avai 0
Camboriu 1
Final
Criciuma 4
Camboriu 3