Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Avai vs SER Caxias do Sul

Brazil Brazil

Copa Sul-Sudeste Dr. Aderbal Ramos da Silva (Ressacada), Florianópolis
Avai Logo

Avai

1 - 0
FT
SER Caxias do Sul Logo

SER Caxias do Sul

Our Tip

Match Events

32'
Romildo Del Piage
37'
Guilherme Aquino
42'
Jhonatan Ribeiro
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Avai in this Copa Sul-Sudeste tie, finishing 1-0. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

42%
Avai
20%
Draws
38%
SER Caxias do Sul
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Avai

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

67% / Medium Confidence
  • Avai have won more games recently than SER Caxias do Sul.
  • Win probability leans Avai's way, sitting at 42%.
  • Avai have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Avai, who have won 3 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69.4%
Avai Clean Sheet 20%
SER Caxias do Sul Clean Sheet 13%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Avai SER Caxias do Sul
Matches Played 33 29
Wins 11 10
Draws 7 8
Losses 15 11
Goals Scored 1.38 0.88
Goals Conceded 1.5 0.88
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.50 0.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 16, 2026 Copa Sul-Sudeste
Avai vs SER Caxias do Sul
1:0
May 7, 2005 Serie B
Avai vs SER Caxias do Sul
2:0
Jul 27, 2004 Serie B
Avai vs SER Caxias do Sul
0:1
Aug 12, 2003 Serie B
Avai vs SER Caxias do Sul
1:0
Nov 9, 2002 Serie B
Avai vs SER Caxias do Sul
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Avai Compare

Top Goalscorer Jamerson
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

SER Caxias do Sul Compare

Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Avai 42 / 100
SER Caxias do Sul 37 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Avai SER Caxias do Sul

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Avai scored in 82% of their last 33 games.

Defensive concern: SER Caxias do Sul conceded in 69% of 29 recent games.

Recent resilience: Avai stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

These sides typically produce 1.00 goals when they meet.

Scoring Trends

Avai VS SER Caxias do Sul
1.38 Goals Scored 0.88
1.5 Goals Conceded 0.88
75% Over 1.5 63%
63% Over 2.5 38%
38% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Avai

(Home)
28 Jul
EC Juventude
1 : 0
Avai
21 Jul
Avai
2 : 1
America MG
17 Jul
Sao Bernardo
1 : 1
Avai
12 Jul
Avai
2 : 0
Nautico
06 Jul
Botafogo SP
3 : 1
Avai
Page 1 of 7

SER Caxias do Sul

(Away)
26 Jul
SER Caxias do Sul
1 : 2
Botafogo PB
11 Jul
SER Caxias do Sul
0 : 0
Floresta EC
04 Jul
Ferroviaria
0 : 1
SER Caxias do Sul
30 Jun
SER Caxias do Sul
1 : 1
Anapolis
21 Jun
SER Caxias do Sul
1 : 1
Maringa FC
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Chapecoense-SC 6 4 1 1 8:5 13
2 Novorizontino 6 3 2 1 8:5 11
3 SER Caxias do Sul 6 3 2 1 6:3 11
4 Cianorte 6 2 2 2 9:10 8
5 Tombense 6 1 2 3 11:13 5
6 Sampaio Correa FE 6 1 2 3 7:9 5
Promotion - Copa Sul-Sudeste (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Avai 6 3 1 2 10:8 10
2 Volta Redonda 6 3 1 2 9:8 10
3 Operario-PR 6 2 3 1 5:4 9
4 America MG 6 2 2 2 11:11 8
5 EC Juventude 6 1 1 4 4:9 4
6 Sao Bernardo 6 0 3 3 6:9 3
Promotion - Copa Sul-Sudeste (Play Offs)