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Avai vs SER Caxias do Sul - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Brazil Brazil

Copa Sul-Sudeste Dr. Aderbal Ramos da Silva (Ressacada), Florianópolis
Avai Logo

Avai

1 - 0
FT
SER Caxias do Sul Logo

SER Caxias do Sul

Our Tip

Match Events

32'
Romildo Del Piage
37'
Guilherme Aquino
42'
Jhonatan Ribeiro
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 1-0. This leg finished 1-0.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Avai
20%
Draws
40%
SER Caxias do Sul
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

20% / Low Confidence
  • Avai have won more games recently than SER Caxias do Sul.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 40%.
  • Avai have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Avai, who have won 3 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 68.2%
Avai Clean Sheet 20%
SER Caxias do Sul Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Avai SER Caxias do Sul
Matches Played 39 30
Wins 13 10
Draws 5 9
Losses 21 11
Goals Scored 1.15 0.83
Goals Conceded 1.38 0.87
Expected Goals (xG) 1.17 0.96
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 16, 2026 Copa Sul-Sudeste
Avai vs SER Caxias do Sul
1:0
May 7, 2005 Serie B
Avai vs SER Caxias do Sul
2:0
Jul 27, 2004 Serie B
Avai vs SER Caxias do Sul
0:1
Aug 12, 2003 Serie B
Avai vs SER Caxias do Sul
1:0
Nov 9, 2002 Serie B
Avai vs SER Caxias do Sul
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Avai Compare

Top Goalscorer Jamerson
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.9
Avg xA / game 0.58

SER Caxias do Sul Compare

Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.53

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Avai 32 / 100
SER Caxias do Sul 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Avai SER Caxias do Sul

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Avai scored in 69% of their last 39 games.

Defensive concern: SER Caxias do Sul conceded in 63% of 30 recent games.

SER Caxias do Sul's recent record shows 3 losses from the last 5 matches.

These sides typically produce 1.00 goals when they meet.

Scoring Trends

Avai VS SER Caxias do Sul
1.13 Goals Scored 0.8
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.2
63% Over 1.5 80%
50% Over 2.5 40%
13% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Avai

(Home)
07 Oct
Avai
2 : 1
Londrina
03 Oct
Avai
0 : 1
Ceara
27 Sept
Criciuma
3 : 0
Avai
20 Sept
Goias
2 : 1
Avai
15 Sept
Avai
1 : 1
Vila Nova FC
Page 1 of 8

SER Caxias do Sul

(Away)
29 Aug
SER Caxias do Sul
0 : 0
Internacional de Limeira
22 Aug
Santa Cruz
2 : 0
SER Caxias do Sul
16 Aug
SER Caxias do Sul
1 : 2
Figueirense
09 Aug
Itabaiana
0 : 2
SER Caxias do Sul
26 Jul
SER Caxias do Sul
1 : 2
Botafogo PB
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Chapecoense-SC 6 4 1 1 8:5 13
2 Novorizontino 6 3 2 1 8:5 11
3 SER Caxias do Sul 6 3 2 1 6:3 11
4 Cianorte 6 2 2 2 9:10 8
5 Tombense 6 1 2 3 11:13 5
6 Sampaio Correa FE 6 1 2 3 7:9 5
Promotion - Copa Sul-Sudeste (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Avai 6 3 1 2 10:8 10
2 Volta Redonda 6 3 1 2 9:8 10
3 Operario-PR 6 2 3 1 5:4 9
4 America MG 6 2 2 2 11:11 8
5 EC Juventude 6 1 1 4 4:9 4
6 Sao Bernardo 6 0 3 3 6:9 3
Promotion - Copa Sul-Sudeste (Play Offs)