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Avenida vs Novo Hamburgo

Brazil Brazil

Gaucho Eucaliptos
Our Tip

Match Events

2' Event
Luam Parede
Assist: Guilherme Mantuan
22'
Henrique Avila
32'
Henrique Avila

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Gaucho matchup, with the score ending 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
Avenida
30%
Draws
34%
Novo Hamburgo
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Avenida

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

66% / Medium Confidence
  • Novo Hamburgo have won more games recently than Avenida.
  • 36% — that's where the model lands on Avenida taking it.
  • Regular Gaucho form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 33%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.2%
Avenida Clean Sheet 20%
Novo Hamburgo Clean Sheet 16%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Avenida Novo Hamburgo
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 5 11
Draws 14 10
Losses 11 8
Goals Scored 1 1.13
Goals Conceded 1 0.88
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.00 0.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 24, 2026 Gaucho
Avenida vs Novo Hamburgo
1:1
Jul 6, 2024 Serie D
Novo Hamburgo vs Avenida
1:1
Jun 26, 2024 Serie D
Avenida vs Novo Hamburgo
2:1
Jan 27, 2024 Gaucho
Novo Hamburgo vs Avenida
0:1
Jan 22, 2023 Gaucho
Novo Hamburgo vs Avenida
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Avenida Compare

Top Goalscorer Wellisson
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Novo Hamburgo Compare

Top Goalscorer Luam Parede
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Avenida 36 / 100
Novo Hamburgo 34 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Avenida Novo Hamburgo

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Solid form: Avenida remains unbeaten in 5 of 5 recent matches.

Novo Hamburgo let in goals in 62% of their last 29 matches.

These sides typically produce 1.60 goals when they meet.

Attacking prowess: Avenida scored in 57% of their last 30 outings.

Scoring Trends

Avenida VS Novo Hamburgo
1 Goals Scored 1.13
1 Goals Conceded 0.88
75% Over 1.5 63%
38% Over 2.5 25%
0% Over 3.5 13%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Internacional650114:515
2EC Juventude63308:312
3EC Sao Jose (PA)62314:39
4Sao Luiz61416:107
5Avenida61234:95
6Guarany de Bage61234:105
PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Gremio631214:610
2SER Caxias do Sul62138:57
3Ypiranga FC61417:97
4Novo Hamburgo61325:56
5Monsoon61325:116
6Inter Santa Maria61231:45