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Avondale FC vs Altona Magic

Australia Australia

NPL Victoria Avenger park
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AI Match Summary

Avondale FC play Altona Magic in the NPL Victoria. It looks like a close match. Recently, Avondale FC averaged 2.21 goals scored and 1.33 conceded. Altona Magic averaged 1.27 goals scored and 1.8 conceded. In past meetings, Avondale FC won 4, Altona Magic won 1, and they drew 0. Their last match on May 9, 2026 ended 5:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 2.94 for Avondale FC and 1.13 for Altona Magic. This points to a Avondale FC double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

55%
Avondale FC
15%
Draws
30%
Altona Magic
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Avondale FC

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

81% / High Confidence
  • Avondale FC picked up more points recently compared to Altona Magic.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (2.94 vs 1.13 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 57%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 88%
Over 1.5 Goals 81%
Over 2.5 Goals 57%
Over 3.5 Goals 34%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 54%
Avondale FC Clean Sheet 21%
Altona Magic Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 73%
Second Half Goal 77%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Avondale FC Altona Magic
Matches Played 33 30
Wins 16 9
Draws 6 5
Losses 11 16
Goals Scored 2.21 1.27
Goals Conceded 1.33 1.8
Expected Goals (xG) 4.00 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.13 1.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 9, 2026 NPL Victoria
Avondale FC vs Altona Magic
5:1
Jul 26, 2025 NPL Victoria
Altona Magic vs Avondale FC
0:1
Apr 12, 2025 NPL Victoria
Avondale FC vs Altona Magic
4:0
Jul 6, 2024 NPL Victoria
Altona Magic vs Avondale FC
1:0
Apr 6, 2024 NPL Victoria
Avondale FC vs Altona Magic
4:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Avondale FC Compare

Top Goalscorer Fornaroli B.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Green M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 3.08
Avg xA / game 2

Altona Magic Compare

Top Goalscorer Mabok J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Avondale FC 54 / 100
Altona Magic 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Avondale FC Altona Magic

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Avondale FC Win (1)
Secondary Pick Avondale FC & Over 2.5
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +17.1%
2.13
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +11.7%
1.96
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Avondale FC attacking → ← attacking Altona Magic

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Avondale FC scored in 82% of their last 33 games.

Altona Magic let in goals in 87% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 3.20 goals.

Avondale FC went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Altona Magic lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

54 Points in last 5 32
4.00 Goals expected (xG) 1.13
1.13 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.88

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Oakleigh Cannons20135243:1844
2Hume City20124440:2440
3Avondale FC20111853:2734
4Preston Lions19122530:1632
5Heidelberg Utd1994631:2431
6South Melbourne20101931:3231
7Melbourne City U211885535:2029
8George Cross1968525:2626
9Dandenong City SC2075826:2722
10Altona Magic20641024:3622
11St Albans1964921:3422
12Bentleigh Greens19441117:4216
13Dandenong Thunder19331320:4212
14Green Gully20241414:4210