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Avro vs Lancaster - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

England England

NPL Premier Division
Our Tip

Match Events

6' Event
Salt H.
18' Event
Yawson S.
32' Event
Smith R.

AI Match Summary

The NPL Premier Division game between Avro and Lancaster finished 5-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Avro.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

57%
Avro
15%
Draws
28%
Lancaster
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Avro

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

57% / Medium Confidence
  • Lancaster haven't matched Avro's recent run of results.
  • Model gives Avro a 57% chance of winning this.
  • Regular NPL Premier Division form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73%
Avro Clean Sheet 20%
Lancaster Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Avro Lancaster
Matches Played 27 27
Wins 15 11
Draws 2 6
Losses 10 10
Goals Scored 2.04 1.52
Goals Conceded 1.44 1.56
Expected Goals (xG) 2.00 1.19
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 7, 2026 NPL Premier Division
Avro vs Lancaster
5:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Avro Compare

Top Goalscorer Smith R.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Salt H.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 1

Lancaster Compare

Top Goalscorer Yawson S.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Bailey C.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.08
Avg xA / game 0.66

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Avro 76 / 100
Lancaster 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Avro Lancaster

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Avro Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 8.00 goals when they meet.

Avro found the back of the net in 74% of recent matches (27 games).

Defensive concern: Lancaster conceded in 70% of 27 recent games.

Recent resilience: Avro stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Avro VS Lancaster
2.25 Goals Scored 1
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.75
75% Over 1.5 88%
38% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Avro

(Home)
07 Oct
Avro
5 : 3
Lancaster
26 Sept
Dunston
0 : 2
Avro
12 Sept
Gainsborough
0 : 2
Avro
05 Sept
Avro
0 : 2
Witton Albion
31 Aug
United of Manchester
3 : 4
Avro
Page 1 of 6

Lancaster

(Away)
07 Oct
Avro
5 : 3
Lancaster
03 Oct
Lancaster
2 : 1
Ilkeston
29 Sept
Whitby
1 : 2
Lancaster
26 Sept
Cleethorpes
5 : 1
Lancaster
19 Sept
Bradford PA
1 : 0
Lancaster
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Cleethorpes 12 8 3 1 27:7 27
2 Avro 10 8 1 1 33:19 25
3 Redcar Athletic 12 7 4 1 23:11 25
4 Guiseley 11 7 1 3 24:11 22
5 Workington 12 6 3 3 23:19 21
6 Warrington Rylands 12 6 2 4 20:17 20
7 Curzon Ashton 10 6 1 3 21:11 19
8 Alfreton 12 6 0 6 18:13 18
9 Warrington Town 10 5 3 2 20:16 18
10 Bury FC 10 5 1 4 19:9 16
11 Gainsborough 10 5 1 4 20:14 16
12 Lancaster 12 5 1 6 16:24 16
13 Hyde 12 4 2 6 13:21 14
14 Ashton United 10 3 3 4 12:11 12
15 Whitby 11 4 0 7 17:32 12
16 Stockton 12 3 2 7 15:22 11
17 Leek Town 11 2 4 5 22:23 10
18 Quorn 11 2 4 5 18:27 10
19 AFC Emley 11 2 4 5 10:22 10
20 Bamber Bridge 11 2 3 6 16:31 9
21 Ilkeston 12 2 1 9 7:26 7
22 United of Manchester 10 1 2 7 12:20 5
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