Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Ayr vs Arbroath

Scotland Scotland

Championship Somerset Park, Ayr
Ayr Logo

Ayr

2 - 0
FT
Arbroath Logo

Arbroath

Our Tip

Match Events

14'
Sub
Shanks K. In: Taylor R.
Out: Shanks K.
44' Event
Summers B.
Assist: Mitchell K.
54'
Sub
King L. In: Dick L.
Out: King L.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The Championship game between Ayr and Arbroath finished 2-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Ayr.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

57%
Ayr
20%
Draws
23%
Arbroath
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Ayr

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

57% / Medium Confidence
  • Arbroath haven't matched Ayr's recent run of results.
  • Win probability leans Ayr's way, sitting at 90%.
  • European nights carry their own weight — this Championship fixture won't be treated like a routine game.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.8%
Ayr Clean Sheet 68%
Arbroath Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Ayr Arbroath
Matches Played 28 29
Wins 11 8
Draws 5 9
Losses 12 12
Goals Scored 1.39 1.21
Goals Conceded 1.36 1.28
Expected Goals (xG) 1.75 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 1, 2026 Championship
Ayr vs Arbroath
2:0
Apr 11, 2026 Championship
Ayr vs Arbroath
1:0
Mar 3, 2026 Championship
Arbroath vs Ayr
1:1
Nov 15, 2025 Championship
Ayr vs Arbroath
1:1
Aug 1, 2025 Championship
Arbroath vs Ayr
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Ayr Compare

Top Goalscorer Summers B.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Taylor R.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.35
Avg xA / game 0.88

Arbroath Compare

Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ayr 95 / 100
Arbroath 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Ayr Arbroath

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Ayr Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Ayr scored in 79% of their last 28 games.

Arbroath let in goals in 62% of their last 29 matches.

Historical meetings average 1.80 goals per match.

Recent resilience: Ayr stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Ayr VS Arbroath
2.13 Goals Scored 1.5
0.5 Goals Conceded 1.38
75% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Ayr

(Home)
14 Aug
Kilmarnock
3 : 2
Ayr
08 Aug
Dunfermline
1 : 1
Ayr
01 Aug
Ayr
2 : 0
Arbroath
25 Jul
Ayr
4 : 1
Alloa
18 Jul
Ayr
2 : 0
Edinburgh City
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Arbroath

(Away)
08 Aug
Arbroath
0 : 0
Inverness
01 Aug
Ayr
2 : 0
Arbroath
25 Jul
Arbroath
1 : 0
Stirling
21 Jul
Arbroath
0 : 2
Montrose
18 Jul
Dundee Utd
3 : 0
Arbroath
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Partick 2 2 0 0 3:0 6
2 Ayr 2 1 1 0 3:1 4
3 Stenhousemuir 2 1 1 0 3:1 4
4 Raith 2 1 1 0 3:2 4
5 Livingston 2 1 0 1 2:2 3
6 Dunfermline 2 0 2 0 1:1 2
7 Inverness 2 0 2 0 0:0 2
8 Arbroath 2 0 1 1 0:2 1
9 Queen's Park 2 0 0 2 1:4 0
10 Morton 2 0 0 2 0:3 0
Promotion - Premiership 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - Premiership (Relegation)
Promotion - Premiership (Relegation)
Relegation - Championship (Relegation)
Relegation - League One 2027/2028 (Main)