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Stadium Background

Ayr vs Arbroath - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Scotland Scotland

Championship Somerset Park, Ayr
Our Tip

Match Events

14'
Sub
Shanks K. In: Taylor R.
Out: Shanks K.
44' Event
Summers B.
Assist: Mitchell K.
54'
Sub
King L. In: Dick L.
Out: King L.

AI Match Summary

The Championship game between Ayr and Arbroath finished 2-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Ayr.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

59%
Ayr
15%
Draws
26%
Arbroath
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Ayr

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

59% / Medium Confidence
  • Arbroath haven't matched Ayr's recent run of results.
  • Win probability leans Ayr's way, sitting at 90%.
  • European nights carry their own weight — this Championship fixture won't be treated like a routine game.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30%
Ayr Clean Sheet 68%
Arbroath Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Ayr Arbroath
Matches Played 28 29
Wins 11 9
Draws 5 7
Losses 12 13
Goals Scored 1.29 0.93
Goals Conceded 1.21 1.28
Expected Goals (xG) 1.19 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 1, 2026 Championship
Ayr vs Arbroath
2:0
Apr 11, 2026 Championship
Ayr vs Arbroath
1:0
Mar 3, 2026 Championship
Arbroath vs Ayr
1:1
Nov 15, 2025 Championship
Ayr vs Arbroath
1:1
Aug 1, 2025 Championship
Arbroath vs Ayr
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Ayr Compare

Top Goalscorer Summers B.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Taylor R.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.59

Arbroath Compare

Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ayr 95 / 100
Arbroath 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Ayr Arbroath

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Ayr Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Ayr scored in 75% of their last 28 games.

Arbroath let in goals in 66% of their last 29 matches.

Historical meetings average 1.80 goals per match.

Recent resilience: Ayr stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Ayr VS Arbroath
1 Goals Scored 0.75
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.38
75% Over 1.5 63%
38% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Ayr

(Home)
10 Oct
Ayr
1 : 1
Dunfermline
03 Oct
Livingston
1 : 2
Ayr
25 Sept
Ayr
0 : 1
Stenhousemuir
18 Sept
Queen's Park
0 : 2
Ayr
12 Sept
Ayr
1 : 3
Inverness
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Arbroath

(Away)
10 Oct
Arbroath
1 : 2
Morton
03 Oct
Partick
3 : 0
Arbroath
25 Sept
Arbroath
2 : 1
Queen's Park
19 Sept
Stenhousemuir
1 : 0
Arbroath
12 Sept
Raith
4 : 0
Arbroath
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Stenhousemuir 9 7 1 1 12:4 22
2 Raith 10 6 2 2 15:6 20
3 Partick 9 5 3 1 10:3 18
4 Livingston 10 4 1 5 14:11 13
5 Inverness 9 3 4 2 11:9 13
6 Dunfermline 8 3 4 1 7:5 13
7 Ayr 10 3 3 4 10:11 12
8 Arbroath 10 3 2 5 7:15 11
9 Morton 10 1 1 8 7:18 4
10 Queen's Park 9 1 1 7 4:15 4
Promotion - Premiership 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - Premiership (Relegation)
Promotion - Premiership (Relegation)
Relegation - Championship (Relegation)
Relegation - League One 2027/2028 (Main)