Sport Picks
Match Events
11'
11'
Main C.
22'
22'
Hughes R.
Assist: Dolan J.
42'
42'
Dempsey B.
(Penalty)
AI Match Summary
This match ends 4-1, with Ayr advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
26%
15%
59%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Stranraer
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
59%
/ Medium Confidence
- Look at the last few games and Stranraer come out ahead of Ayr on wins alone.
- Win probability leans Stranraer's way, sitting at 90%.
- Stranraer arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
- Historical meetings favor Ayr, who have won 4 of the last 5 encounters.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
- History favors Ayr here — 5 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.8%
Ayr Clean Sheet 14%
Stranraer Clean Sheet 15%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Ayr | Stranraer |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 31 |
| Wins | 11 | 12 |
| Draws | 5 | 5 |
| Losses | 13 | 14 |
| Goals Scored | 1.34 | 1.58 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.28 | 1.29 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.00 | 1.63 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Jul 11, 2026 League Cup
Stranraer vs Ayr
2:3
Jan 13, 2026 Challenge Cup
Ayr vs Stranraer
4:1
Jul 8, 2023 Club Friendly
Ayr vs Stranraer
2:0
Jun 25, 2022 Club Friendly
Ayr vs Stranraer
2:1
Nov 14, 2020 League Cup
Ayr vs Stranraer
2:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Ayr Compare
Top Goalscorer Main C.
1 Goals Assists Leader Finney G.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5
Stranraer Compare
Top Goalscorer Hughes R.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.48
Avg xA / game 0.91
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Ayr 10 / 100
Stranraer 84 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Ayr Stranraer
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Stranraer Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Historical meetings average 3.60 goals per match.
Ayr found the back of the net in 79% of recent matches (29 games).
Stranraer has conceded goals in 71% of their last 31 outings.
Recent resilience: Ayr stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Ayr VS Stranraer
0.88 Goals Scored 1.88
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.13
75% Over 1.5 75%
25% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 25%
Recent Form & Match History
Ayr
(Home) 18 Sept
Queen's Park
0 : 2 Ayr
12 Sept
Ayr
1 : 3 Inverness
05 Sept
Partick
1 : 0 Ayr
29 Aug
Ayr
1 : 1 Morton
22 Aug
Raith
2 : 0 Ayr
Page 1 of 6
12 Sept
Ayr
1 : 3 Inverness
29 Aug
Ayr
1 : 1 Morton
01 Aug
Ayr
2 : 0 Arbroath
25 Jul
Ayr
4 : 1 Alloa
18 Jul
Ayr
2 : 0 Edinburgh City
Page 1 of 4
Stranraer
(Away) 22 Sept
Berwick
3 : 2 Stranraer
19 Sept
Elgin City
1 : 5 Stranraer
12 Sept
Stranraer
3 : 1 Dumbarton
05 Sept
Forfar Athletic
0 : 3 Stranraer
01 Sept
Stranraer
3 : 4 Celtic B
Page 1 of 7
22 Sept
Berwick
3 : 2 Stranraer
19 Sept
Elgin City
1 : 5 Stranraer
05 Sept
Forfar Athletic
0 : 3 Stranraer
22 Aug
Stirling
2 : 2 Stranraer
11 Aug
Alloa
2 : 1 Stranraer
Page 1 of 3
Tournament Bracket & Draw
1/16-finals
Arbroath 3
Kelty Hearts 2
Elgin City 2
East Fife 3
Alloa 2
Airdrieonians 3
Montrose 2
Spartans 1
Queen's Park 2
Clyde 1
Forfar Athletic 2
Edinburgh City 1
Raith 5
Hamilton 2
Queen of the South 4
Dunfermline 3
Hearts B 0
St Johnstone 1
Ross County 4
Celtic B 0
Ayr 2
Peterhead 1
East Kilbride 1
Stranraer 4
Cove Rangers 1
Partick 2
Dumbarton 0
Inverness 9
Stirling 3
Morton 2
Stenhousemuir 2
Annan 0
1/8-finals
Arbroath 3
East Fife 0
Airdrieonians 3
Montrose 1
Queen's Park 2
Forfar Athletic 0
Raith 1
Queen of the South 0
St Johnstone 2
Ross County 0
Ayr 4
Stranraer 1
Partick 3
Inverness 4
Stirling 1
Stenhousemuir 2
Quarter-finals
Arbroath 2
Airdrieonians 3
Queen's Park 1
Raith 2
St Johnstone 3
Ayr 4
Inverness 1
Stenhousemuir 0
Semi-finals
Airdrieonians 1
Raith 2
Ayr 1
Inverness 2
Final
Raith 4
Inverness 1
