Sport Picks
Match Events
11'
11'
Main C.
22'
22'
Hughes R.
Assist: Dolan J.
42'
42'
Dempsey B.
(Penalty)
AI Match Summary
This match ends 4-1, with Ayr advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
85%
15%
0%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Ayr
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
85%
/ Very High Confidence
- Look at the last few games and Ayr come out ahead of Stranraer on wins alone.
- Win probability leans Ayr's way, sitting at 90%.
- Ayr have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
- Historical meetings favor Ayr, who have won 4 of the last 5 encounters.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
- History favors Ayr here — 5 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.4%
Ayr Clean Sheet 20%
Stranraer Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Ayr | Stranraer |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 30 |
| Wins | 14 | 9 |
| Draws | 4 | 8 |
| Losses | 11 | 13 |
| Goals Scored | 2.25 | 1.13 |
| Goals Conceded | 0.5 | 1.75 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 2.25 | 1.13 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 0.50 | 1.75 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Jul 11, 2026 League Cup
Stranraer vs Ayr
2:3
Jan 13, 2026 Challenge Cup
Ayr vs Stranraer
4:1
Jul 8, 2023 Club Friendly
Ayr vs Stranraer
2:0
Jun 25, 2022 Club Friendly
Ayr vs Stranraer
2:1
Nov 14, 2020 League Cup
Ayr vs Stranraer
2:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Ayr Compare
Top Goalscorer Main C.
1 Goals Assists Leader Finney G.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.73
Avg xA / game 1.13
Stranraer Compare
Top Goalscorer Hughes R.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Ayr 85 / 100
Stranraer 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Ayr Stranraer
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick AYR Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Historical meetings average 3.60 goals per match.
Solid form: Ayr remains unbeaten in 5 of 5 recent matches.
Difficult form: Stranraer registered 5 defeats in their last 5 games.
Ayr's goal record stands at 79% scoring rate across 29 recent games.
Scoring Trends
Ayr VS Stranraer
2.25 Goals Scored 1.13
0.5 Goals Conceded 1.75
75% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 50%
Recent Form & Match History
Ayr
(Home) 01 Aug
Ayr
2 : 0 Arbroath
25 Jul
Ayr
4 : 1 Alloa
18 Jul
Ayr
2 : 0 Edinburgh City
14 Jul
Falkirk
0 : 1 Ayr
11 Jul
Stranraer
2 : 3 Ayr
Page 1 of 6
01 Aug
Ayr
2 : 0 Arbroath
25 Jul
Ayr
4 : 1 Alloa
18 Jul
Ayr
2 : 0 Edinburgh City
04 Jul
Ayr
2 : 1 Airdrieonians
30 Jun
Ayr
3 : 0 Dumbarton
Page 1 of 4
Stranraer
(Away) 01 Aug
Clyde
3 : 1 Stranraer
25 Jul
Falkirk
3 : 0 Stranraer
21 Jul
Stranraer
0 : 2 Edinburgh City
18 Jul
Alloa
3 : 2 Stranraer
11 Jul
Stranraer
2 : 3 Ayr
Page 1 of 6
01 Aug
Clyde
3 : 1 Stranraer
25 Jul
Falkirk
3 : 0 Stranraer
18 Jul
Alloa
3 : 2 Stranraer
04 Jul
Morton
0 : 0 Stranraer
02 May
Elgin City
0 : 1 Stranraer
Page 1 of 3
Tournament Bracket & Draw
1/16-finals
Arbroath 3
Kelty Hearts 2
Elgin City 2
East Fife 3
Alloa 2
Airdrieonians 3
Montrose 2
Spartans 1
Queen's Park 2
Clyde 1
Forfar Athletic 2
Edinburgh City 1
Raith 5
Hamilton 2
Queen of the South 4
Dunfermline 3
Hearts B 0
St Johnstone 1
Ross County 4
Celtic B 0
Ayr 2
Peterhead 1
East Kilbride 1
Stranraer 4
Cove Rangers 1
Partick 2
Dumbarton 0
Inverness 9
Stirling 3
Morton 2
Stenhousemuir 2
Annan 0
1/8-finals
Arbroath 3
East Fife 0
Airdrieonians 3
Montrose 1
Queen's Park 2
Forfar Athletic 0
Raith 1
Queen of the South 0
St Johnstone 2
Ross County 0
Ayr 4
Stranraer 1
Partick 3
Inverness 4
Stirling 1
Stenhousemuir 2
Quarter-finals
Arbroath 2
Airdrieonians 3
Queen's Park 1
Raith 2
St Johnstone 3
Ayr 4
Inverness 1
Stenhousemuir 0
Semi-finals
Airdrieonians 1
Raith 2
Ayr 1
Inverness 2
Final
Raith 4
Inverness 1
