Sport Picks
AZ Alkmaar vs Shakhtar
Europe
Conference League 2025/2026 AFAS Stadion, Alkmaar 
Match Events
24'
24'
Isaque Silva
31'
31'
Chavez Garcia M.
33'
33'
van Duijl B.
AI Match Summary
Neither side could be separated in this Conference League 2025/2026 tie, finishing 2-2. Extra time or penalties follow.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
35%
20%
45%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Shakhtar
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
20%
/ Low Confidence
- Shakhtar have won more games recently than AZ Alkmaar.
- 36% — that's where the model lands on AZ Alkmaar taking it.
- Shakhtar arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
- Historical meetings favor AZ Alkmaar, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.8%
AZ Alkmaar Clean Sheet 20%
Shakhtar Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | AZ Alkmaar | Shakhtar |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 30 |
| Wins | 16 | 19 |
| Draws | 8 | 6 |
| Losses | 5 | 5 |
| Goals Scored | 2.21 | 2 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.14 | 0.83 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.63 | 1.13 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Apr 16, 2026 Conference League
AZ Alkmaar vs Shakhtar
2:2
Apr 9, 2026 Conference League
Shakhtar vs AZ Alkmaar
3:0
Jul 8, 2023 Club Friendly
AZ Alkmaar vs Shakhtar
3:3
Mar 16, 2005 Europa League
AZ Alkmaar vs Shakhtar
2:1
Mar 10, 2005 Europa League
Shakhtar vs AZ Alkmaar
1:3
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
AZ Alkmaar Compare
Top Goalscorer Jensen I.
1 Goals Assists Leader Sin M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.81
Shakhtar Compare
Top Goalscorer Alisson
1 Goals Assists Leader Luca Meirelles
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
AZ Alkmaar 36 / 100
Shakhtar 33 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
AZ Alkmaar Shakhtar
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
AZ Alkmaar found the back of the net in 83% of recent matches (29 games).
H2H data points to 4.00 goals as a typical output.
Solid form: AZ Alkmaar remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.
Shakhtar's defensive record shows goals conceded in 53% of 30 matches.
Scoring Trends
AZ Alkmaar VS Shakhtar
2.63 Goals Scored 1.38
0.88 Goals Conceded 0.63
88% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 25%
50% Over 3.5 13%
Recent Form & Match History
AZ Alkmaar
(Home) 20 Sept
AZ Alkmaar
1 : 0 Telstar
16 Sept
Sunderland
1 : 0 AZ Alkmaar
11 Sept
AZ Alkmaar
1 : 1 Willem II
06 Sept
Heerenveen
2 : 3 AZ Alkmaar
29 Aug
AZ Alkmaar
5 : 2 G.A. Eagles
Page 1 of 6
20 Sept
AZ Alkmaar
1 : 0 Telstar
11 Sept
AZ Alkmaar
1 : 1 Willem II
29 Aug
AZ Alkmaar
5 : 2 G.A. Eagles
08 Aug
AZ Alkmaar
2 : 0 Den Haag
25 Jul
AZ Alkmaar
3 : 2 Olympiacos Piraeus
Page 1 of 4
Shakhtar
(Away) 20 Sept
Shakhtar
3 : 0 LNZ Cherkasy
17 Sept
FC Vilkhivtsi
0 : 3 Shakhtar
14 Sept
Shakhtar
2 : 0 Ch. Odesa
10 Sept
PSV
1 : 1 Shakhtar
05 Sept
Karpaty Lviv
1 : 2 Shakhtar
Page 1 of 6
17 Sept
FC Vilkhivtsi
0 : 3 Shakhtar
10 Sept
PSV
1 : 1 Shakhtar
05 Sept
Karpaty Lviv
1 : 2 Shakhtar
16 Aug
FC Kharkiv
0 : 1 Shakhtar
09 Aug
Epitsentr
0 : 2 Shakhtar
Page 1 of 4
Tournament Bracket & Draw
1/16-finals
KuPS 0
Lech Poznan 3
Shakhtar -
TBD -
Noah 1
AZ Alkmaar 4
Sparta Prague -
TBD -
Zrinjski 1
Crystal Palace 3
AEK Larnaca -
TBD -
Jagiellonia 4
Fiorentina 5
Rakow Czestochowa -
TBD -
Shkendija Tetovo 0
Samsunspor 5
Rayo Vallecano -
TBD -
Drita 4
Celje 6
AEK -
TBD -
Sigma Olomouc 3
Lausanne 2
Mainz -
TBD -
Omonia 1
Rijeka 4
Strasbourg -
TBD -
1/8-finals
Lech Poznan 3
Shakhtar 4
AZ Alkmaar 6
Sparta Prague 1
Crystal Palace 2
AEK Larnaca 1
Fiorentina 4
Rakow Czestochowa 2
Samsunspor 2
Rayo Vallecano 3
Celje 2
AEK 4
Sigma Olomouc 0
Mainz 2
Rijeka 2
Strasbourg 3
Quarter-finals
Shakhtar 5
AZ Alkmaar 2
Crystal Palace 4
Fiorentina 2
Rayo Vallecano 4
AEK 3
Mainz 2
Strasbourg 4
Semi-finals
Shakhtar 2
Crystal Palace 5
Rayo Vallecano 2
Strasbourg 0
Final
Crystal Palace 1
Rayo Vallecano 0
