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Azerbaijan vs Hungary

World World

Friendly International 2025 Liv Bona Dea Arena
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Azerbaijan play Hungary in the Friendly International 2025. Hungary are favorites here. Recently, Azerbaijan averaged 1 goals scored and 1.97 conceded. Hungary averaged 1.33 goals scored and 1.47 conceded. In past meetings, Azerbaijan won 0, Hungary won 5, and they drew 0. Their last match on Jun 10, 2025 ended 1:2. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.31 for Azerbaijan and 1.88 for Hungary. This points to a Hungary double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

29%
Azerbaijan
15%
Draws
56%
Hungary
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Hungary

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

82% / High Confidence
  • Azerbaijan picked up more points recently compared to Hungary.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.31 vs 1.88 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 58%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 58%
Over 3.5 Goals 35%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 48%
Azerbaijan Clean Sheet 10%
Hungary Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 74%
Second Half Goal 78%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Azerbaijan Hungary
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 8 12
Draws 4 8
Losses 18 10
Goals Scored 1 1.33
Goals Conceded 1.97 1.47
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.25 1.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 10, 2025 Friendly International
Azerbaijan vs Hungary
1:2
Oct 13, 2019 Euro
Hungary vs Azerbaijan
1:0
Jun 8, 2019 Euro
Azerbaijan vs Hungary
1:3
Feb 9, 2011 Friendly International
Azerbaijan vs Hungary
0:2
Sep 7, 1999 Euro
Hungary vs Azerbaijan
3:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Azerbaijan Compare

Top Goalscorer Dadashov R.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Hungary Compare

Top Goalscorer Varga B.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Szoboszlai D.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Azerbaijan 28 / 100
Hungary 52 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Azerbaijan Hungary

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Hungary Win (2)
Secondary Pick Hungary & Over 2.5
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +38%
4.76
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +11.4%
1.92
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Azerbaijan attacking → ← attacking Hungary

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Azerbaijan scored in 57% of their last 30 games.

Hungary let in goals in 67% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 2.60 goals.

Azerbaijan went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Hungary lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Low
Risk Factor

Busy schedule: Managers might rest key players, which can affect team cohesion.

Risk Factor

Friendly match. Both teams will likely test tactics and rotate squads rather than push for a result.

Risk Factor

Pressure: A tense match where mistakes or cards can change things quickly.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

28 Points in last 5 44
1.38 Goals expected (xG) 1.50
2.25 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.25