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Azerbaijan vs Lithuania - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Europe Europe

UEFA Nations League Ganja City Stadium, Gäncä
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Match Events

25' Event
Khaybulaev A.
Assist: Bayramov T.
33'
Khaybulaev A.
43'
Vorobjovas M.

AI Match Summary

Azerbaijan in this UEFA Nations League matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Azerbaijan.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

43%
Azerbaijan
30%
Draws
27%
Lithuania
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Azerbaijan

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

27% / Low Confidence
  • Lithuania haven't matched Azerbaijan's recent run of results.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 44% draw probability.
  • Continental football usually means sharper preparation from both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28.8%
Azerbaijan Clean Sheet 21%
Lithuania Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Azerbaijan Lithuania
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 8 7
Draws 6 5
Losses 16 17
Goals Scored 0.97 0.86
Goals Conceded 1.9 1.41
Expected Goals (xG) 1.44 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 4, 2026 UEFA Nations League
Azerbaijan vs Lithuania
1:0
Sep 27, 2026 UEFA Nations League
Lithuania vs Azerbaijan
1:1
Mar 25, 2019 Friendly International
Azerbaijan vs Lithuania
0:0
Mar 26, 2008 Friendly International
Lithuania vs Azerbaijan
1:0
Jun 26, 1998 Friendly International
Azerbaijan vs Lithuania
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Azerbaijan Compare

Top Goalscorer Khaybulaev A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.11
Avg xA / game 0.72

Lithuania Compare

Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Azerbaijan 37 / 100
Lithuania 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Azerbaijan Lithuania

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Lithuania Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Recent resilience: Azerbaijan stayed unbeaten in 5 of the last 5 games.

Azerbaijan found the back of the net in 60% of recent matches (30 games).

Defensive concern: Lithuania conceded in 72% of 29 recent games.

H2H data points to 1.40 goals as a typical output.

Scoring Trends

Azerbaijan VS Lithuania
1.63 Goals Scored 0.75
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.25
88% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 25%
25% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Azerbaijan

(Home)
04 Oct
Azerbaijan
1 : 0
Lithuania
01 Oct
Azerbaijan
0 : 0
Liechtenstein
27 Sept
Lithuania
1 : 1
Azerbaijan
23 Sept
Azerbaijan
1 : 0
Tajikistan
09 Jun
Azerbaijan
2 : 1
San Marino
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Lithuania

(Away)
04 Oct
Azerbaijan
1 : 0
Lithuania
30 Sept
Lithuania
3 : 0
Andorra
27 Sept
Lithuania
1 : 1
Azerbaijan
24 Sept
Liechtenstein
0 : 2
Lithuania
09 Jun
Estonia
1 : 0
Lithuania
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League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Malta 3 2 1 0 4:2 7
2 Gibraltar 2 0 2 0 1:1 2
3 Andorra 3 0 1 2 1:3 1
Promotion - UEFA Nations League 2028/2029 (League C)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Azerbaijan 3 1 2 0 2:1 5
2 Lithuania 3 1 1 1 3:2 4
3 Liechtenstein 2 0 1 1 0:2 1
Promotion - UEFA Nations League 2028/2029 (League C)