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Baghdad vs Newroz

Iraq Iraq

Stars League
Our Tip

Match Events

5' Event
Malek H.
24' Event
Komolafe P.

AI Match Summary

The Stars League game between Baghdad and Newroz finished 0-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Newroz.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
Baghdad
30%
Draws
34%
Newroz
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Baghdad

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

66% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Newroz come out ahead of Baghdad on wins alone.
  • Model gives Baghdad a 36% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Stars League form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • Newroz have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34.8%
Baghdad Clean Sheet 68%
Newroz Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Baghdad Newroz
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 5 15
Draws 7 6
Losses 18 9
Goals Scored 1.38 1.13
Goals Conceded 2 1.38
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.00 1.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 12, 2026 Stars League
Baghdad vs Newroz
0:2
Dec 22, 2025 Stars League
Newroz vs Baghdad
0:1
Apr 4, 2024 Stars League
Newroz vs Baghdad
3:2
Nov 24, 2023 Stars League
Baghdad vs Newroz
0:2
May 13, 2022 Stars League
Newroz vs Baghdad
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Baghdad Compare

Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Newroz Compare

Top Goalscorer Malek H.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Komolafe P.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Baghdad 46 / 100
Newroz 44 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Baghdad Newroz

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Baghdad scored in 73% of their last 30 games.

Defensive concern: Newroz conceded in 67% of 30 recent games.

H2H data points to 2.40 goals as a typical output.

Baghdad has registered 1 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Baghdad VS Newroz
1.38 Goals Scored 1.13
2 Goals Conceded 1.38
88% Over 1.5 75%
75% Over 2.5 63%
63% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Baghdad

(Home)
08 Jun
Baghdad
0 : 1
Karbala
02 Jun
Erbil
3 : 1
Baghdad
27 May
Baghdad
1 : 3
Al Gharraf
19 May
Diyala
1 : 4
Baghdad
15 May
Baghdad
0 : 1
Al Kahraba
Page 1 of 6

Newroz

(Away)
01 Jun
Al Naft
2 : 1
Newroz
27 May
Newroz
1 : 1
Al Mosul
20 May
Newroz
2 : 1
Zakho
16 May
Erbil
0 : 1
Newroz
11 May
Al Kahraba
2 : 1
Newroz
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Al Quwa Al Jawiya 38 27 8 3 62:28 89
2 Al Shorta 38 24 8 6 69:32 80
3 Erbil 38 23 10 5 59:32 79
4 Al Zawraa 38 17 15 6 50:32 66
5 Al-Karma 38 17 14 7 53:26 65
6 Al Talaba 38 18 11 9 53:38 65
7 Al Karkh 38 16 12 10 51:41 60
8 Newroz 38 16 6 16 48:47 54
9 Zakho 38 14 11 13 49:45 53
10 Duhok 38 13 11 14 44:45 50
11 Diyala 38 13 10 15 40:42 49
12 Al Naft 38 11 15 12 33:34 48
13 Al Mosul 38 11 14 13 46:49 47
14 Al Gharraf 38 11 11 16 40:43 44
15 Naft Missan 38 11 10 17 48:57 43
16 Al Minaa 38 9 13 16 38:47 40
17 Al Kahraba 37 11 5 21 44:56 38
18 Baghdad 38 10 7 21 47:68 37
19 Al Najaf 37 6 5 26 31:68 23
20 Al-Qassim 38 0 6 32 21:96 6
Promotion - AFC Champions League (League phase)
Relegation - Stars League (Relegation)