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Bahamas vs Saint Martin - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

North & Central America North & Central America

CONCACAF Nations League Bethlehem Soccer Stadium, Upper Bethlehem
Our Tip

Match Events

15' Event
Raga Rigobert A.
Assist: Denis R.
20' Event
Alexandre J.
Assist: Denis R.
23' Event
Montantin Y.
Assist: Varsovie S.

AI Match Summary

Saint Martin in this CONCACAF Nations League matchup, with the score ending 0-8 — backing the pre-match view that favored Saint Martin.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

0%
Bahamas
15%
Draws
85%
Saint Martin
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Saint Martin

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

85% / Very High Confidence
  • Saint Martin have won more games recently than Bahamas.
  • Model gives Saint Martin a 85% chance of winning this.
  • Regular CONCACAF Nations League form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 85%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 85%
Over 3.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 25%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.400000000000002%
Bahamas Clean Sheet 10%
Saint Martin Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Bahamas Saint Martin
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 3 15
Draws 3 3
Losses 23 12
Goals Scored 1 2.3
Goals Conceded 3.55 1.4
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 3.19
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 6, 2026 CONCACAF Nations League
Saint Martin vs Bahamas
6:0
Sep 23, 2026 CONCACAF Nations League
Bahamas vs Saint Martin
0:8

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Bahamas Compare

Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Saint Martin Compare

Top Goalscorer Raga Rigobert A.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Alexandre J.
2 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.9
Avg xA / game 1.77

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Bahamas 10 / 100
Saint Martin 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Bahamas Saint Martin

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Saint Martin Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:3
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Historical meetings average 7.00 goals per match.

Defensive concern: Saint Martin conceded in 67% of 30 recent games.

Bahamas scored in 59% of their last 29 games.

Saint Martin lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Bahamas VS Saint Martin
0.38 Goals Scored 1.75
4.63 Goals Conceded 1.63
88% Over 1.5 88%
88% Over 2.5 88%
75% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Bahamas

(Home)
06 Oct
Saint Martin
6 : 0
Bahamas
04 Oct
Bahamas
2 : 3
United States Virgin Islands
29 Sept
United States Virgin Islands
3 : 1
Bahamas
23 Sept
Bahamas
0 : 8
Saint Martin
30 Mar
Cayman Islands
1 : 0
Bahamas
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Saint Martin

(Away)
06 Oct
Saint Martin
6 : 0
Bahamas
01 Oct
United States Virgin Islands
0 : 5
Saint Martin
26 Sept
Saint Martin
0 : 2
United States Virgin Islands
23 Sept
Bahamas
0 : 8
Saint Martin
30 Mar
Bonaire
0 : 3
Saint Martin
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