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Bahia vs Juazeirense

Brazil Brazil

Baiano Arena Fonte Nova, Salvador
Our Tip

Match Events

23'
Ze Romario
24' Event
Willian Jose
34' Event
Erick Pulga

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 4-2. The second leg ended 4-2.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

51%
Bahia
30%
Draws
19%
Juazeirense
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Bahia

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Juazeirense haven't matched Bahia's recent run of results.
  • Bahia are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • Bahia have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Bahia, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 22.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 35.2%
Bahia Clean Sheet 68%
Juazeirense Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Bahia Juazeirense
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 13 9
Draws 10 9
Losses 8 12
Goals Scored 1.65 1
Goals Conceded 1.39 1.37
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 0.86
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 28, 2026 Baiano
Bahia vs Juazeirense
4:2
Feb 8, 2026 Baiano
Juazeirense vs Bahia
1:1
Feb 22, 2025 Baiano
Bahia vs Juazeirense
2:0
Feb 5, 2025 Copa do Nordeste
Juazeirense vs Bahia
0:0
Feb 25, 2024 Baiano
Juazeirense vs Bahia
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Bahia Compare

Top Goalscorer Willian Jose
1 Goals
Assists Leader Erick Pulga
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Juazeirense Compare

Top Goalscorer Bino
1 Goals
Assists Leader Vitinho
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.78
Avg xA / game 0.48

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Bahia 95 / 100
Juazeirense 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Bahia Juazeirense

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Bahia Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 3:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Bahia found the back of the net in 87% of recent matches (31 games).

Recent resilience: Bahia stayed unbeaten in 5 of the last 5 games.

Juazeirense let in goals in 73% of their last 30 matches.

H2H data points to 2.60 goals as a typical output.

Scoring Trends

Bahia VS Juazeirense
1.5 Goals Scored 0.6
1.13 Goals Conceded 1
88% Over 1.5 40%
38% Over 2.5 20%
25% Over 3.5 20%

Recent Form & Match History

Bahia

(Home)
14 Sept
Bahia
2 : 1
Remo
05 Sept
Bragantino
2 : 3
Bahia
30 Aug
Bahia
3 : 2
Internacional
23 Aug
Vitoria
0 : 2
Bahia
16 Aug
Chapecoense-SC
3 : 3
Bahia
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Juazeirense

(Away)
28 Jun
Juazeirense
0 : 1
Serra Branca
21 Jun
Serra Branca
2 : 0
Juazeirense
14 Jun
Clube Sociedade Esportiva
0 : 1
Juazeirense
31 May
Juazeirense
0 : 0
Alagoinhas
24 May
Jacuipense
2 : 2
Juazeirense
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Semi-finals
Bahia 4
Juazeirense 2
Vitoria 2
Jacuipense 1
Final
Bahia 2
Vitoria 1