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Baia de Pemba vs Costa do Sol Prediction & H2H Stats

Mozambique Mozambique

Mocambola
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Baia de Pemba in this Mocambola matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Baia de Pemba.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

39%
Baia de Pemba
15%
Draws
46%
Costa do Sol
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Costa do Sol

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

46% / Medium Confidence
  • Costa do Sol have won more games recently than Baia de Pemba.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 44%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 38%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 0%
Over 4.5 Goals 0%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 23.200000000000003%
Baia de Pemba Clean Sheet 25%
Costa do Sol Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Baia de Pemba Costa do Sol
Matches Played 28 28
Wins 8 12
Draws 10 9
Losses 10 7
Goals Scored 0.75 1.07
Goals Conceded 0.86 0.71
Expected Goals (xG) 0.44 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 19, 2026 Mocambola
Baia de Pemba vs Costa do Sol
1:0
Oct 5, 2025 Mocambola
Baia de Pemba vs Costa do Sol
0:0
Jun 21, 2025 Mocambola
Costa do Sol vs Baia de Pemba
2:0
Oct 6, 2024 Mocambola
Baia de Pemba vs Costa do Sol
0:1
Jun 16, 2024 Mocambola
Costa do Sol vs Baia de Pemba
3:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Baia de Pemba 37 / 100
Costa do Sol 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Baia de Pemba Costa do Sol

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Costa do Sol Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Recent resilience: Baia de Pemba stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Attacking prowess: Baia de Pemba scored in 43% of their last 28 outings.

Defensive concern: Costa do Sol conceded in 50% of 28 recent games.

Historical meetings average 1.40 goals per match.

Scoring Trends

Baia de Pemba VS Costa do Sol
0.38 Goals Scored 1.5
0.25 Goals Conceded 0.5
13% Over 1.5 63%
13% Over 2.5 50%
0% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Baia de Pemba

(Home)
13 Sept
ENH Vilankulo
2 : 0
Baia de Pemba
02 Sept
Baia de Pemba
2 : 1
Ferroviario Lichinga
25 Aug
Baia de Pemba
1 : 0
Ferroviario Nacala
22 Aug
Baia de Pemba
0 : 0
Ferroviario Nampula
19 Aug
Baia de Pemba
1 : 0
Costa do Sol
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Costa do Sol

(Away)
16 Sept
Chingale de Tete
0 : 1
Costa do Sol
02 Sept
Costa do Sol
1 : 0
Sofala
30 Aug
Costa do Sol
1 : 2
Ferroviario Beira
26 Aug
Costa do Sol
3 : 0
Associacao Black Bulls
22 Aug
Ferroviario Maputo
0 : 1
Costa do Sol
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Associacao Black Bulls 19 13 5 1 28:9 44
2 Costa do Sol 18 10 4 4 24:11 34
3 Ferroviario Beira 18 9 7 2 23:12 34
4 UD Songo 18 6 10 2 20:13 28
5 Ferroviario Lichinga 17 8 4 5 16:13 28
6 Ferroviario Nampula 17 8 4 5 19:21 28
7 Ferroviario Maputo 18 6 5 7 13:11 23
8 ENH Vilankulo 17 4 8 5 19:16 20
9 Ferroviario Nacala 17 5 5 7 8:12 20
10 Baia de Pemba 17 4 7 6 9:12 19
11 Sofala 19 4 6 9 8:19 18
12 AD Pemba 17 5 2 10 9:19 17
13 Maxaquene 18 1 7 10 8:23 10
14 Chingale de Tete 18 1 6 11 4:17 9
Promotion - CAF Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)