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Baia de Pemba vs Ferroviario Beira - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Mozambique Mozambique

Mocambola
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Baia de Pemba in this Mocambola matchup, with the score ending 2-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Baia de Pemba.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

53%
Baia de Pemba
15%
Draws
32%
Ferroviario Beira
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Baia de Pemba

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

53% / Medium Confidence
  • Ferroviario Beira have won more games recently than Baia de Pemba.
  • Model gives Baia de Pemba a 53% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 0%
Over 4.5 Goals 0%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 62.6%
Baia de Pemba Clean Sheet 20%
Ferroviario Beira Clean Sheet 20%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Baia de Pemba Ferroviario Beira
Matches Played 26 27
Wins 8 12
Draws 9 8
Losses 9 7
Goals Scored 0.65 1.07
Goals Conceded 0.81 0.78
Expected Goals (xG) 0.69 0.81
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 25, 2026 Mocambola
Baia de Pemba vs Ferroviario Beira
2:1
Dec 28, 2025 Mocambola
Baia de Pemba vs Ferroviario Beira
0:0
Sep 5, 2025 Mocambola
Ferroviario Beira vs Baia de Pemba
1:0
Nov 10, 2024 Mocambola
Baia de Pemba vs Ferroviario Beira
1:0
Jul 28, 2024 Mocambola
Ferroviario Beira vs Baia de Pemba
0:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Baia de Pemba 67 / 100
Ferroviario Beira 16 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Baia de Pemba Ferroviario Beira

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Baia de Pemba Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Solid form: Baia de Pemba remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Difficult form: Ferroviario Beira registered 3 defeats in their last 5 games.

Baia de Pemba's goal record stands at 42% scoring rate across 26 recent games.

Ferroviario Beira let in goals in 56% of their last 27 matches.

Scoring Trends

Baia de Pemba VS Ferroviario Beira
0.5 Goals Scored 1.38
0.25 Goals Conceded 0.88
13% Over 1.5 88%
13% Over 2.5 50%
0% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Baia de Pemba

(Home)
10 Oct
Baia de Pemba
1 : 0
UD Songo
13 Sept
ENH Vilankulo
2 : 0
Baia de Pemba
02 Sept
Baia de Pemba
2 : 1
Ferroviario Lichinga
25 Aug
Baia de Pemba
1 : 0
Ferroviario Nacala
22 Aug
Baia de Pemba
0 : 0
Ferroviario Nampula
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Ferroviario Beira

(Away)
10 Oct
Ferroviario Nampula
2 : 0
Ferroviario Beira
19 Sept
Ferroviario Beira
0 : 1
Ferroviario Maputo
16 Sept
Ferroviario Beira
0 : 2
Associacao Black Bulls
03 Sept
Maxaquene
1 : 2
Ferroviario Beira
30 Aug
Costa do Sol
1 : 2
Ferroviario Beira
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Associacao Black Bulls 19 13 5 1 28:9 44
2 Costa do Sol 20 12 4 4 28:12 40
3 Ferroviario Beira 20 9 7 4 23:15 34
4 Ferroviario Nampula 18 9 4 5 21:21 31
5 Ferroviario Maputo 20 8 5 7 15:11 29
6 UD Songo 20 6 10 4 21:16 28
7 Ferroviario Lichinga 18 8 4 6 16:15 28
8 Ferroviario Nacala 18 6 5 7 11:14 23
9 Baia de Pemba 18 5 7 6 10:12 22
10 ENH Vilankulo 18 4 8 6 19:17 20
11 AD Pemba 18 6 2 10 10:19 20
12 Sofala 20 4 6 10 10:22 18
13 Chingale de Tete 20 2 6 12 5:18 12
14 Maxaquene 19 1 7 11 8:24 10
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