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Baku Sporting vs Karvan - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Azerbaijan Azerbaijan

I Liqa
Our Tip

Match Events

4' Event
Abdullayev S.
54' Event
Bayramov E.
80' Event
Silas O.

AI Match Summary

The I Liqa game between Baku Sporting and Karvan finished 0-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Karvan.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

23%
Baku Sporting
30%
Draws
47%
Karvan
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Karvan

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Baku Sporting come out ahead of Karvan on wins alone.
  • Karvan are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • These two have met 4 times recently and Karvan have taken 3 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.6%
Baku Sporting Clean Sheet 21%
Karvan Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Baku Sporting Karvan
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 12 4
Draws 9 6
Losses 8 19
Goals Scored 1.14 0.76
Goals Conceded 0.9 1.72
Expected Goals (xG) 1.19 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 3, 2026 I Liqa
Baku Sporting vs Karvan
0:3
Mar 27, 2025 I Liqa
Karvan vs Baku Sporting
1:1
Dec 24, 2024 I Liqa
Baku Sporting vs Karvan
0:2
Sep 26, 2024 I Liqa
Karvan vs Baku Sporting
3:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Baku Sporting Compare

Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.59

Karvan Compare

Top Goalscorer Abdullayev S.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Bayramov E.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Baku Sporting 10 / 100
Karvan 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Baku Sporting Karvan

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Karvan Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Karvan let in goals in 86% of their last 29 matches.

Baku Sporting found the back of the net in 62% of recent matches (29 games).

Historical meetings average 2.75 goals per match.

Solid form: Baku Sporting remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Baku Sporting VS Karvan
1 Goals Scored 0.75
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.38
75% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 38%
13% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Baku Sporting

(Home)
17 Sept
Baku Sporting
0 : 1
Sabail
10 Sept
Zaqatala PFK
3 : 0
Baku Sporting
03 Sept
Baku Sporting
0 : 3
Karvan
22 May
Sahdag Qusar
1 : 1
Baku Sporting
15 May
Baku Sporting
3 : 0
Zaqatala PFK
Page 1 of 6

Karvan

(Away)
08 Oct
Sabail
1 : 1
Karvan
16 Sept
Karvan
3 : 0
Zaqatala PFK
09 Sept
Sahdag Qusar
2 : 0
Karvan
03 Sept
Baku Sporting
0 : 3
Karvan
24 May
Imisli FK
1 : 1
Karvan
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Sahdag Qusar 4 4 0 0 13:1 12
2 Gancabasar 3 3 0 0 7:2 9
3 Sabail 4 2 2 0 5:3 8
4 Karvan 4 2 1 1 7:3 7
5 MOIK Baku 4 2 1 1 6:2 7
6 Zaqatala PFK 4 1 1 2 5:11 4
7 FC Khankendi 4 0 2 2 3:6 2
8 Shimal 4 0 2 2 4:8 2
9 Mingachevir 4 0 1 3 3:10 1
10 Baku Sporting 3 0 0 3 0:7 0
Promotion - Premier League 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - Premier League (Relegation)
Relegation - I Liqa (Relegation)