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Baku Sporting vs Mingachevir Prediction & H2H Stats

Azerbaijan Azerbaijan

I Liqa 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

90' Event
Alizada E.

AI Match Summary

Mingachevir in this I Liqa 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 0-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Mingachevir.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Baku Sporting
20%
Draws
40%
Mingachevir
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

20% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Mingachevir lately — more wins on the board than Baku Sporting.
  • Win probability leans Baku Sporting's way, sitting at 36%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.4%
Baku Sporting Clean Sheet 10%
Mingachevir Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Baku Sporting Mingachevir
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 12 13
Draws 9 7
Losses 8 9
Goals Scored 1.14 1.86
Goals Conceded 0.9 1.31
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 18, 2026 I Liqa
Baku Sporting vs Mingachevir
1:1
Mar 5, 2026 I Liqa
Baku Sporting vs Mingachevir
0:1
Nov 26, 2025 I Liqa
Mingachevir vs Baku Sporting
1:2
Apr 24, 2025 I Liqa
Mingachevir vs Baku Sporting
4:0
Feb 20, 2025 I Liqa
Baku Sporting vs Mingachevir
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Baku Sporting Compare

Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Mingachevir Compare

Top Goalscorer Alizada E.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.76
Avg xA / game 1.08

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Baku Sporting 34 / 100
Mingachevir 33 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Baku Sporting Mingachevir

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Baku Sporting's goal record stands at 62% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Mingachevir has conceded goals in 72% of their last 29 outings.

Games between these two average 2.20 goals.

Mingachevir's recent record shows 3 losses from the last 5 matches.

Scoring Trends

Baku Sporting VS Mingachevir
1 Goals Scored 2.38
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.5
75% Over 1.5 100%
50% Over 2.5 75%
13% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Baku Sporting

(Home)
17 Sept
Baku Sporting
0 : 1
Sabail
10 Sept
Zaqatala PFK
3 : 0
Baku Sporting
03 Sept
Baku Sporting
0 : 3
Karvan
22 May
Sahdag Qusar
1 : 1
Baku Sporting
15 May
Baku Sporting
3 : 0
Zaqatala PFK
Page 1 of 6

Mingachevir

(Away)
17 Sept
Mingachevir
0 : 3
Gancabasar
10 Sept
Sabail
2 : 1
Mingachevir
04 Sept
Mingachevir
2 : 2
Zaqatala PFK
28 May
Gabala
2 : 0
Mingachevir
22 May
Mingachevir
4 : 1
Sabail
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Safa Baku 27 16 9 2 52:21 57
2 Mingachevir 27 15 6 6 55:27 51
3 Sabail 27 14 8 5 46:21 50
4 Baku Sporting 27 13 10 4 40:23 49
5 Sahdag Qusar 27 12 7 8 36:27 43
6 MOIK Baku 27 9 6 12 33:40 33
7 Zaqatala PFK 27 8 4 15 27:44 28
8 Gancabasar 27 7 3 17 40:56 24
9 Shimal 27 5 5 17 23:61 20
10 Difai Agsu 27 4 6 17 28:60 18
Promotion - Premier League (Main)
Promotion - Premier League 2025/2026 (Relegation)
Relegation - I Liqa 2025/2026 (Relegation)