Sport Picks

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Bali United vs Arema FC

Indonesia Indonesia

Super League Kapten I Wayan Dipta Stadium, Gianyar
Our Tip

Match Events

46'
Sub
Valdeci In: Balinsa S. G.
Out: Valdeci
49' Event
Agung K.
Assist: Goppel T.
60'
Balinsa S. G.

AI Match Summary

Bali United in this Super League matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Bali United.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
Bali United
44%
Draws
20%
Arema FC
Draw rate projection: 44% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

71% / Medium Confidence
  • Bali United have won more games recently than Arema FC.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 44%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 25%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.8%
Bali United Clean Sheet 13%
Arema FC Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Bali United Arema FC
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 13 11
Draws 7 7
Losses 10 11
Goals Scored 2.63 2
Goals Conceded 1.38 1.25
Expected Goals (xG) 2.63 2.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.38 1.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 6, 2026 Super League
Arema FC vs Bali United
3:4
Jan 4, 2026 Super League
Bali United vs Arema FC
1:0
Feb 3, 2025 Super League
Arema FC vs Bali United
1:0
Sep 11, 2024 Super League
Bali United vs Arema FC
0:0
Jul 21, 2024 President Cup
Bali United vs Arema FC
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Bali United Compare

Top Goalscorer Agung K.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 2.02
Avg xA / game 1.31

Arema FC Compare

Avg xG / game 1.82
Avg xA / game 1.11

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Bali United 35 / 100
Arema FC 20 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Bali United Arema FC

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick ARE Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Bali United scored in 73% of their last 30 outings.

Arema FC has conceded goals in 76% of their last 29 outings.

H2H data points to 2.00 goals as a typical output.

Bali United went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Bali United VS Arema FC
2.63 Goals Scored 2
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.25
88% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 63%
63% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Bali United

(Home)
22 May
Dewa United
0 : 1
Bali United
17 May
Bali United
4 : 1
FC Bhayangkara
11 May
Bali United
2 : 3
Borneo
05 May
Madura United
2 : 0
Bali United
27 Apr
Bali United
2 : 0
PSM Makassar
Page 1 of 6

Arema FC

(Away)
25 Jul
Persib Bandung
1 : 0
Arema FC
22 May
Arema FC
3 : 1
PSIM Yogyakarta
15 May
PSBS Biak Numfor
2 : 5
Arema FC
09 May
Arema FC
3 : 0
PSM Makassar
03 May
Persik Kediri
3 : 2
Arema FC
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Persib Bandung34247359:2279
2Borneo34254574:3179
3Persija Jakarta34225765:2971
4Persebaya341610861:3558
5FC Bhayangkara341651353:4553
6Malut United341581168:5353
7Dewa United341651344:3753
8Bali United341491157:4851
9Arema FC341391253:4748
10Persita341361538:3745
11PSIM Yogyakarta3411121143:4445
12Persik Kediri341161742:6139
13Persijap Jepara34991631:4536
14Madura United34981737:5435
15PSM Makassar348101639:4934
16Persis Solo348101639:5934
17Semen Padang34552422:6520
18PSBS Biak Numfor34462431:9518
Promotion - AFC Champions League 2 (Qualification)
Promotion - AFC Challenge League (Qualification)