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Balikpapan vs Tornado Pekanbaru - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Indonesia Indonesia

Championship Stadion Batakan, Balikpapan
Fri, Oct 16, 2026
VS
12:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Balikpapan host Tornado Pekanbaru in the Championship. History leans heavily one way in this fixture. Tornado Pekanbaru have shipped 0.71 goals a game lately, while Balikpapan have conceded 1.55 and scored 0.72. Head-to-head, Balikpapan have won 0 to Tornado Pekanbaru's 3, with 0 draws. They last met on Apr 12, 2026, ending 3:0. Model xG sits at 0.75 vs 1.88, favoring Tornado Pekanbaru. Away (2) are the model's selection here, or BTTS: GG.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

17%
Balikpapan
20%
Draws
63%
Tornado Pekanbaru
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Tornado Pekanbaru

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

63% / High Confidence
  • Tornado Pekanbaru have won more games recently than Balikpapan.
  • Win probability leans Tornado Pekanbaru's way, sitting at 70%.
  • European nights carry their own weight — this Championship fixture won't be treated like a routine game.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Tornado Pekanbaru have won 3 of the last 3 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 67%
Balikpapan Clean Sheet 10%
Tornado Pekanbaru Clean Sheet 19%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Balikpapan Tornado Pekanbaru
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 3 16
Draws 7 6
Losses 19 6
Goals Scored 0.72 1.75
Goals Conceded 1.55 0.71
Expected Goals (xG) 0.75 1.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 12, 2026 Championship
Tornado Pekanbaru vs Balikpapan
3:0
Dec 28, 2025 Championship
Balikpapan vs Tornado Pekanbaru
1:3
Oct 6, 2025 Championship
Tornado Pekanbaru vs Balikpapan
2:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Balikpapan 14 / 100
Tornado Pekanbaru 67 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Balikpapan Tornado Pekanbaru

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Tornado Pekanbaru Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 3.00 goals when they meet.

Balikpapan scored in 52% of their last 29 games.

Tornado Pekanbaru let in goals in 46% of their last 28 matches.

Recent resilience: Balikpapan stayed unbeaten in 1 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Balikpapan VS Tornado Pekanbaru
1.13 Goals Scored 1.88
1.88 Goals Conceded 0.38
75% Over 1.5 63%
63% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Balikpapan

(Home)
04 Oct
Deltras Sidoarjo
2 : 0
Balikpapan
25 Sept
Balikpapan
0 : 1
Dejan
19 Sept
Balikpapan
0 : 1
Persela Lamongan
13 Sept
RANS Nusantara
3 : 2
Balikpapan
08 May
Persekat Tegal
1 : 2
Balikpapan
Page 1 of 6

Tornado Pekanbaru

(Away)
03 Oct
Persis Solo
0 : 2
Tornado Pekanbaru
26 Sept
Tornado Pekanbaru
2 : 2
PS Barito Putera
18 Sept
Persipura Jayapura
0 : 0
Tornado Pekanbaru
12 Sept
Dejan
0 : 1
Tornado Pekanbaru
03 May
Tornado Pekanbaru
5 : 0
Persela Lamongan
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 PSMS Medan 4 3 1 0 13:2 10
2 PSIS Semarang 4 3 1 0 7:2 9
3 Persikad Depok 4 3 0 1 6:7 9
4 PSPS Riau 4 3 0 1 6:4 9
5 Semen Padang 4 2 1 1 4:2 6
6 PSGC Ciamis 4 2 0 2 5:5 6
7 Sumsel United 4 1 1 2 5:7 3
8 Bekasi City 4 0 1 3 2:5 1
9 Persiraja Aceh 4 0 0 4 3:7 -1
10 Persiku Kudus 4 0 1 3 2:12 -1
Promotion - Super League 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - Championship (Promotion - Play Offs)
Relegation - Championship (Relegation - Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Deltras Sidoarjo 4 4 0 0 12:3 12
2 Persela Lamongan 4 4 0 0 10:0 11
3 RANS Nusantara 5 3 1 1 15:9 10
4 Tornado Pekanbaru 4 2 2 0 5:2 7
5 Persipura Jayapura 5 1 2 2 7:8 4
6 PS Barito Putera 4 1 1 2 7:8 4
7 Persis Solo 4 1 1 2 8:5 4
8 Dejan 4 1 1 2 5:7 4
9 Balikpapan 4 0 0 4 2:7 -4
10 PSBS Biak Numfor 4 0 0 4 1:23 -4
Promotion - Super League 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - Championship (Promotion - Play Offs)
Relegation - Championship (Relegation - Play Offs)