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Ballinamallard vs Warrenpoint - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Northern Ireland Northern Ireland

NIFL Championship
Sat, Oct 17, 2026
VS
02:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Ballinamallard host Warrenpoint in the NIFL Championship. History leans heavily one way in this fixture. Warrenpoint have shipped 1.59 goals a game lately, while Ballinamallard have conceded 1.4 and scored 1.07. Head-to-head, Ballinamallard have won 0 to Warrenpoint's 5, with 0 draws. They last met on Apr 18, 2026, ending 0:1. The numbers (1.56 xG vs 1.94) point toward Warrenpoint. Away (2) are the model's selection here, or BTTS: GG.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

37%
Ballinamallard
30%
Draws
33%
Warrenpoint
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Ballinamallard

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

33% / Low Confidence
  • Warrenpoint have won more games recently than Ballinamallard.
  • Win probability leans Warrenpoint's way, sitting at 50%.
  • European nights carry their own weight — this NIFL Championship fixture won't be treated like a routine game.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Warrenpoint have taken 5 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 66.6%
Ballinamallard Clean Sheet 10%
Warrenpoint Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Ballinamallard Warrenpoint
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 6 8
Draws 9 4
Losses 15 17
Goals Scored 1.07 1.21
Goals Conceded 1.4 1.59
Expected Goals (xG) 1.56 1.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 18, 2026 NIFL Championship
Ballinamallard vs Warrenpoint
0:1
Feb 24, 2026 NIFL Championship
Warrenpoint vs Ballinamallard
1:0
Dec 13, 2025 NIFL Championship
Ballinamallard vs Warrenpoint
0:4
Oct 4, 2025 NIFL Championship
Warrenpoint vs Ballinamallard
4:1
Feb 25, 2023 NIFL Championship
Warrenpoint vs Ballinamallard
2:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ballinamallard 22 / 100
Warrenpoint 47 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Ballinamallard Warrenpoint

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Warrenpoint Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Warrenpoint's defensive record shows goals conceded in 76% of 29 matches.

These sides typically produce 2.80 goals when they meet.

Ballinamallard went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Ballinamallard's goal record stands at 47% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Scoring Trends

Ballinamallard VS Warrenpoint
1.75 Goals Scored 2.13
1.75 Goals Conceded 1.38
100% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 50%
50% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Ballinamallard

(Home)
03 Oct
Ballinamallard
1 : 1
Ards
26 Sept
Newington FC
4 : 0
Ballinamallard
19 Sept
Harland & Wolff
1 : 3
Ballinamallard
12 Sept
Ballinamallard
1 : 1
Glenavon
05 Sept
Loughgall
1 : 6
Ballinamallard
Page 1 of 6

Warrenpoint

(Away)
03 Oct
Warrenpoint
1 : 1
Annagh
25 Sept
Rathfriland Rangers
0 : 2
Warrenpoint
19 Sept
Institute
2 : 0
Warrenpoint
12 Sept
Warrenpoint
6 : 2
Moyola
05 Sept
Warrenpoint
0 : 1
Newington FC
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Annagh 10 6 3 1 24:13 21
2 Glenavon 10 6 2 2 25:13 20
3 Newington FC 11 6 2 3 24:20 20
4 Queens University 10 6 1 3 20:7 19
5 Newry City 11 5 3 3 19:19 18
6 Institute 10 5 1 4 20:17 16
7 Harland & Wolff 10 5 0 5 18:16 15
8 Ards 11 4 3 4 14:13 15
9 Warrenpoint 10 4 2 4 18:15 14
10 Ballinamallard 10 4 2 4 16:16 14
11 Loughgall 10 3 4 3 14:19 13
12 Dundela 11 2 5 4 19:23 11
13 Moyola 10 3 2 5 10:20 11
14 Strabane Athletic 10 2 3 5 10:19 9
15 Rathfriland Rangers 11 3 0 8 11:23 9
16 Armagh 11 0 5 6 9:18 5
Promotion - NIFL Championship (Promotion Group)
Relegation - NIFL Championship (Relegation Group)