Sport Picks
AI Match Summary
The Tercera Division - Group 4 2020/2021 game between Balmaseda and Tolosa finished 2-2.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
80%
20%
0%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Balmaseda
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
80%
/ Very High Confidence
- Look at the last few games and Tolosa come out ahead of Balmaseda on wins alone.
- Win probability leans Balmaseda's way, sitting at 90%.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.4%
Balmaseda Clean Sheet 20%
Tolosa Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Balmaseda | Tolosa |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 38 |
| Wins | 7 | 11 |
| Draws | 12 | 5 |
| Losses | 11 | 22 |
| Goals Scored | 1 | 1.34 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.33 | 1.95 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.79 | 1.18 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Mar 6, 2021 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Balmaseda vs Tolosa
2:2
Dec 12, 2020 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Tolosa vs Balmaseda
0:0
May 3, 2020 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Balmaseda vs Tolosa
0:0
Dec 15, 2019 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Tolosa vs Balmaseda
1:0
May 13, 2017 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Tolosa vs Balmaseda
1:2
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Balmaseda 85 / 100
Tolosa 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Balmaseda Tolosa
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Balmaseda Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Tolosa's defensive record shows goals conceded in 84% of 38 matches.
Balmaseda has registered 5 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.
Away concern: Tolosa has suffered 5 losses in 5 recent matches.
Balmaseda's goal record stands at 67% scoring rate across 30 recent games.
Scoring Trends
- VS Tolosa
0 Goals Scored 1.25
0 Goals Conceded 2.38
0% Over 1.5 100%
0% Over 2.5 100%
0% Over 3.5 38%
Recent Form & Match History
Balmaseda
(Home) 12 Jun
CD Ariznabarra
2 : 3 Balmaseda
05 Jun
Balmaseda
2 : 0 Lagun Onak
29 May
Santurtzi
1 : 2 Balmaseda
23 May
Balmaseda
0 : 0 SCD Durango
19 May
Balmaseda
2 : 2 Santurtzi
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05 Jun
Balmaseda
2 : 0 Lagun Onak
23 May
Balmaseda
0 : 0 SCD Durango
19 May
Balmaseda
2 : 2 Santurtzi
08 May
Balmaseda
2 : 0 CD Ariznabarra
10 Apr
Balmaseda
1 : 0 Sodupe
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Tolosa
(Away) 29 Apr
Tolosa
3 : 4 Santutxu FC
23 Apr
SD Deusto
3 : 1 Tolosa
13 Apr
Tolosa
2 : 3 Lagun Onak
09 Apr
CD Vitoria
3 : 2 Tolosa
02 Apr
Tolosa
1 : 4 Amurrio Club
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23 Apr
SD Deusto
3 : 1 Tolosa
09 Apr
CD Vitoria
3 : 2 Tolosa
26 Mar
Pasaia
1 : 0 Tolosa
12 Mar
San Ignacio
3 : 1 Tolosa
20 Feb
Urduliz FT
1 : 1 Tolosa
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League Standings (Group 1)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gernika Club | 20 | 13 | 4 | 3 | 39:16 | 43 |
| 2 | Real Sociedad C | 20 | 12 | 4 | 4 | 48:27 | 40 |
| 3 | Sestao | 20 | 12 | 3 | 5 | 40:13 | 39 |
| 4 | SD Deusto | 20 | 11 | 3 | 6 | 30:24 | 36 |
| 5 | Santutxu FC | 20 | 8 | 5 | 7 | 20:23 | 29 |
| 6 | Beasain | 20 | 6 | 9 | 5 | 20:14 | 27 |
| 7 | Tolosa | 20 | 6 | 6 | 8 | 21:26 | 24 |
| 8 | Aurrera Ondarroa | 20 | 5 | 5 | 10 | 23:31 | 20 |
| 9 | Balmaseda | 20 | 3 | 9 | 8 | 22:27 | 18 |
| 10 | Somorrostro | 20 | 4 | 5 | 11 | 20:31 | 17 |
| 11 | Urgatzi | 20 | 3 | 1 | 16 | 11:62 | 10 |
Promotion - Tercera Division - Group 4 2020/2021 (Promotion Group)
Promotion - Tercera Division - Group 4 2020/2021 (Second stage)
Relegation - Tercera Division - Group 4 2020/2021 (Relegation Group)
League Standings (Group 2)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CD Vitoria | 20 | 9 | 8 | 3 | 20:4 | 35 |
| 2 | Urduliz FT | 20 | 9 | 8 | 3 | 28:18 | 35 |
| 3 | Pasaia | 20 | 9 | 7 | 4 | 22:14 | 34 |
| 4 | Basconia | 20 | 7 | 9 | 4 | 24:15 | 30 |
| 5 | Anaitasuna FT | 20 | 7 | 9 | 4 | 20:19 | 30 |
| 6 | San Ignacio | 20 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 19:19 | 29 |
| 7 | Santurtzi | 20 | 6 | 5 | 9 | 18:27 | 23 |
| 8 | SCD Durango | 20 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 17:20 | 22 |
| 9 | Sodupe | 20 | 4 | 8 | 8 | 21:23 | 20 |
| 10 | CD Ariznabarra | 20 | 3 | 7 | 10 | 12:28 | 16 |
| 11 | Lagun Onak | 20 | 3 | 6 | 11 | 17:31 | 15 |
Promotion - Tercera Division - Group 4 2020/2021 (Promotion Group)
Promotion - Tercera Division - Group 4 2020/2021 (Second stage)
Relegation - Tercera Division - Group 4 2020/2021 (Relegation Group)
