Sport Picks
Bangor 1876 vs Caerau Ely - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
Wales
FAW Welsh Cup 2025/2026 
Match Events
14'
14'
Powell-Roberts C.
16'
16'
McLean T.
21'
21'
Griffiths D.
AI Match Summary
This match ends 3-1, with Bangor 1876 advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
21%
15%
64%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Caerau Ely
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
64%
/ High Confidence
- Caerau Ely carry the better recent record into this one.
- 64% — that's where the model lands on Caerau Ely taking it.
- Caerau Ely arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
- Historical meetings favor Bangor 1876, who have won 1 of the last 1 encounters.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 85%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 85%
Over 3.5 Goals 63%
Over 4.5 Goals 28%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 76.6%
Bangor 1876 Clean Sheet 10%
Caerau Ely Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Bangor 1876 | Caerau Ely |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 28 | 26 |
| Wins | 11 | 13 |
| Draws | 1 | 5 |
| Losses | 16 | 8 |
| Goals Scored | 1.96 | 2.27 |
| Goals Conceded | 2 | 1.5 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 2.19 | 2.00 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Jan 31, 2026 FAW Welsh Cup
Bangor 1876 vs Caerau Ely
3:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Bangor 1876 Compare
Top Goalscorer Powell-Roberts C.
1 Goals Assists Leader McGonigle C.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.68
Avg xA / game 1.09
Caerau Ely Compare
Top Goalscorer Griffiths D.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.82
Avg xA / game 1.11
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Bangor 1876 10 / 100
Caerau Ely 74 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Bangor 1876 Caerau Ely
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Caerau Ely Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Bangor 1876's goal record stands at 86% scoring rate across 28 recent games.
These sides typically produce 4.00 goals when they meet.
Caerau Ely has conceded goals in 62% of their last 26 outings.
Recent resilience: Bangor 1876 stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Bangor 1876 VS Caerau Ely
2.75 Goals Scored 2.13
1.88 Goals Conceded 1.63
100% Over 1.5 88%
100% Over 2.5 75%
63% Over 3.5 63%
Recent Form & Match History
Bangor 1876
(Home) 03 Oct
Porthmadog
1 : 0 Bangor 1876
25 Sept
Bangor 1876
2 : 6 Buckley
12 Sept
Penrhyncoch
1 : 5 Bangor 1876
05 Sept
Bangor 1876
2 : 2 Rhyl
31 Aug
Mold Alexandra
2 : 1 Bangor 1876
Page 1 of 6
25 Sept
Bangor 1876
2 : 6 Buckley
05 Sept
Bangor 1876
2 : 2 Rhyl
28 Aug
Bangor 1876
2 : 1 Brickfield Rangers
15 Aug
Bangor 1876
5 : 0 Llanuwchllyn
31 Jul
Bangor 1876
1 : 2 Bala
Page 1 of 3
Caerau Ely
(Away) 02 Oct
Caerau Ely
2 : 0 Afan Lido
26 Sept
Cardiff Draconians
1 : 3 Caerau Ely
11 Sept
Caerau Ely
3 : 0 Llanelli
31 Aug
Caerau Ely
3 : 2 Treowen
28 Aug
Baglan Dragons
3 : 1 Caerau Ely
Page 1 of 6
26 Sept
Cardiff Draconians
1 : 3 Caerau Ely
28 Aug
Baglan Dragons
3 : 1 Caerau Ely
14 Aug
Trethomas Bluebirds
2 : 4 Caerau Ely
01 Aug
Carmarthen Town
4 : 3 Caerau Ely
21 Jul
Haverfordwest
2 : 1 Caerau Ely
Page 1 of 3
Tournament Bracket & Draw
1/64-finals
Porthmadog 3
Denbigh 2
TBD -
Buckley -
Port Talbot 2
Seven Sisters 1
Afan Lido 3
Evans Williams 2
Pwllheli 1
Rhyl 3
Brickfield Rangers 3
NFA 1
Llantwit Major 2
Baglan Dragons 0
Cwmbran Town 5
Ynyshir Albions 4
Llanelli -
TBD -
TBD -
Haverfordwest -
Aberystwyth -
TBD -
TBD -
Barry Town -
Caerphilly 1
Caldicot 3
Penrhiwceiber Rangers 7
Pentwynmawr Ath 0
Saltney Town 3
Gresford 7
Llanrug 4
Ruthin Town 3
Cardiff Metropolitan University -
TBD -
Taffs Well 2
Abertillery Excelsiors 1
Mold Alexandra -
TBD -
TBD -
TNS -
Newtown -
TBD -
TBD -
Caernarfon -
Llannefydd 5
Llanberis FC 1
Penrhyncoch 2
Sychdyn Utd 0
Llwydcoed 3
Lliswerry 1
Pill -
Treowen -
Pontypridd United -
TBD -
Rhayader 1
Cefn Cribwr 4
Carmarthen Town -
TBD -
TBD -
Trethomas Bluebirds -
Llanfair United 1
Kinmel Bay 2
TBD -
Colwyn Bay -
Goytre Utd 2
Ammanford Town 1
TBD -
Cambrian United -
Briton Ferry -
TBD -
TBD -
Penybont -
Bow Street 4
Cefn Albion 2
TBD -
Flint Town -
Holyhead 4
Forden Utd 0
TBD -
Airbus UK Broughton FC -
Cwmbach Royal Stars 3
Garden Village 4
Tredegar Town 1
Glynneath Town 3
Broughton Utd 2
Welshpool 1
Berriew FC 0
Trearddur Bay 3
Newport City -
TBD -
Penygraig Utd 3
Cwm Welfare 2
Blaenavon Blues 4
Canton 1
Pontyclun FC 4
Tata Steel 1
St. Asaph 0
Bangor 1876 6
TBD -
Guilsfield -
Holywell Town FC -
TBD -
Rhostyllen 5
Nefyn United 2
Dinas Powys 3
Afan United 1
Cardiff Draconians 4
Cwmbran Celtic 2
Abercarn United 1
Pure Swansea 2
TBD -
Trefelin -
Caersws FC 6
Hawarden Rangers 1
Dolgellau Athletic 8
Queens Park 3
Penydarren 0
Caerau Ely 5
Morriston Town 1
Clydach 0
Llandudno FC -
TBD -
TBD -
Flint Mountain -
Bala -
TBD -
TBD -
Connahs Q. -
1/32-finals
Porthmadog 1
Buckley 0
Port Talbot 3
Afan Lido 1
Rhyl 1
Brickfield Rangers 0
Llantwit Major 1
Cwmbran Town 2
Llanelli 3
Haverfordwest 0
Aberystwyth 0
Barry Town 5
Caldicot 0
Penrhiwceiber Rangers 2
Gresford 9
Llanrug 0
Cardiff Metropolitan University 5
Taffs Well 1
Mold Alexandra 1
TNS 2
Newtown 0
Caernarfon 3
Llannefydd 1
Penrhyncoch 2
Llwydcoed 2
Treowen 5
Pontypridd United 3
Cefn Cribwr 1
Carmarthen Town 5
Trethomas Bluebirds 1
Kinmel Bay 0
Colwyn Bay 5
Goytre Utd 0
Cambrian United 6
Briton Ferry 0
Penybont 5
Bow Street 0
Flint Town 3
Holyhead 2
Airbus UK Broughton FC 5
Garden Village 2
Glynneath Town 4
Broughton Utd 0
Trearddur Bay 6
Newport City 3
Penygraig Utd 1
Blaenavon Blues 4
Pontyclun FC 2
Bangor 1876 2
Guilsfield 1
Holywell Town FC 3
Rhostyllen 2
Dinas Powys 1
Cardiff Draconians 3
Pure Swansea 1
Trefelin 6
Caersws FC 0
Dolgellau Athletic 1
Caerau Ely 3
Morriston Town 0
Llandudno FC 3
Flint Mountain 0
Bala 0
Connahs Q. 3
1/16-finals
Porthmadog 3
Port Talbot 2
Rhyl 3
Cwmbran Town 2
Llanelli 0
Barry Town 6
Penrhiwceiber Rangers 0
Gresford 3
Cardiff Metropolitan University 2
TNS 1
Caernarfon 4
Penrhyncoch 0
Treowen 1
Pontypridd United 2
Carmarthen Town 1
Colwyn Bay 3
Cambrian United 1
Penybont 3
Flint Town 1
Airbus UK Broughton FC 0
Glynneath Town 2
Trearddur Bay 5
Newport City 3
Blaenavon Blues 2
Bangor 1876 2
Holywell Town FC 1
Cardiff Draconians 3
Trefelin 4
Dolgellau Athletic 0
Caerau Ely 2
Llandudno FC 2
Connahs Q. 1
1/8-finals
Porthmadog 1
Rhyl 2
Barry Town 4
Gresford 0
Cardiff Metropolitan University 2
Caernarfon 4
Pontypridd United 0
Colwyn Bay 3
Penybont 0
Flint Town 1
Trearddur Bay 5
Newport City 3
Bangor 1876 2
Trefelin 0
Caerau Ely 2
Llandudno FC 1
Quarter-finals
Rhyl 2
Barry Town 1
Caernarfon 4
Colwyn Bay 1
Flint Town 3
Trearddur Bay 0
Bangor 1876 3
Caerau Ely 1
Semi-finals
Rhyl 1
Caernarfon 2
Flint Town 5
Bangor 1876 1
Final
Caernarfon 3
Flint Town 0
