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Barco vs Arosa SC

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Tercera RFEF - Group 1 2025/2026
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Match Events

29' Event
Rey A.

AI Match Summary

The Tercera RFEF - Group 1 2025/2026 game between Barco and Arosa SC finished 0-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Arosa SC.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

22%
Barco
20%
Draws
58%
Arosa SC
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Arosa SC

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

58% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Arosa SC come out ahead of Barco on wins alone.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 44% draw probability.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • Arosa SC have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28.8%
Barco Clean Sheet 12%
Arosa SC Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Barco Arosa SC
Matches Played 28 29
Wins 12 16
Draws 5 9
Losses 11 4
Goals Scored 1.11 1.52
Goals Conceded 1.25 1.07
Expected Goals (xG) 0.81 1.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 19, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 1
Barco vs Arosa SC
0:1
Dec 14, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 1
Arosa SC vs Barco
2:0
Jan 15, 2023 Tercera RFEF - Group 1
Arosa SC vs Barco
2:1
Sep 11, 2022 Tercera RFEF - Group 1
Barco vs Arosa SC
0:1
Jan 30, 2021 Tercera RFEF - Group 1
Arosa SC vs Barco
2:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Barco Compare

Avg xG / game 0.62
Avg xA / game 0.41

Arosa SC Compare

Top Goalscorer Rey A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.59
Avg xA / game 0.97

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Barco 35 / 100
Arosa SC 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Barco Arosa SC

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Arosa SC Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Barco scored in 71% of their last 28 outings.

Arosa SC let in goals in 62% of their last 29 matches.

Historical meetings average 2.20 goals per match.

Barco went unbeaten in 1 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Barco VS Arosa SC
0.63 Goals Scored 1.63
1.88 Goals Conceded 1
63% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Barco

(Home)
12 Sept
Barco
1 : 2
Silva SD
06 Sept
Arenteiro
0 : 1
Barco
19 Aug
UD Ourense
2 : 0
Barco
10 May
Estradense
3 : 1
Barco
03 May
Barco
1 : 2
Somozas
Page 1 of 6

Arosa SC

(Away)
19 Sept
Basconia
2 : 2
Arosa SC
13 Sept
Arosa SC
0 : 4
Gernika Club
06 Sept
Amorebieta
2 : 2
Arosa SC
01 Aug
Arosa SC
3 : 1
Pontevedra
10 May
Arosa SC
3 : 2
Celtiga
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Arosa SC 34 20 10 4 58:35 70
2 Compostela 34 19 11 4 55:28 68
3 Atletico Arteixo 34 16 10 8 54:44 58
4 Estradense 34 14 11 9 46:33 53
5 Racing Club Villalbes 34 13 13 8 36:29 52
6 Gran Pena 34 13 12 9 57:42 51
7 Somozas 34 13 12 9 37:32 51
8 CD Boiro 34 13 12 9 45:29 51
9 Lugo B 34 12 12 10 41:35 48
10 Montaneros 34 12 12 10 48:42 48
11 Barco 34 13 7 14 35:41 46
12 Alondras 34 12 9 13 45:48 45
13 Celtiga 34 11 7 16 47:48 40
14 Viveiro 34 9 11 14 27:41 38
15 Silva SD 34 9 9 16 36:48 36
16 Cambados 34 4 14 16 24:43 26
17 Noia 34 6 7 21 28:57 25
18 Barbadas-Bentraces 34 4 7 23 25:69 19
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 1 2025/2026 (Play Offs)