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Barco vs Lugo B

Spain Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 1 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

48'
Alcalde A.
69' Event
Sidibe M.

AI Match Summary

The Tercera RFEF - Group 1 2025/2026 game between Barco and Lugo B finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Barco.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

23%
Barco
30%
Draws
47%
Lugo B
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Lugo B

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Barco carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Lugo B are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 44%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.200000000000003%
Barco Clean Sheet 14%
Lugo B Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Barco Lugo B
Matches Played 32 30
Wins 13 10
Draws 8 10
Losses 11 10
Goals Scored 1.13 1.2
Goals Conceded 1.22 1.07
Expected Goals (xG) 0.75 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 15, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 1
Barco vs Lugo B
1:0
Oct 26, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 1
Lugo B vs Barco
1:1
Feb 20, 2022 Tercera RFEF - Group 1
Lugo B vs Barco
1:0
Oct 17, 2021 Tercera RFEF - Group 1
Barco vs Lugo B
1:3
Mar 8, 2020 Tercera RFEF - Group 1
Barco vs Lugo B
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Barco Compare

Top Goalscorer Sidibe M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.58
Avg xA / game 0.38

Lugo B Compare

Avg xG / game 1.48
Avg xA / game 0.91

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Barco 10 / 100
Lugo B 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Barco Lugo B

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Lugo B Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Barco scored in 75% of their last 32 games.

Lugo B let in goals in 70% of their last 30 matches.

These sides typically produce 1.80 goals when they meet.

Solid form: Barco remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Barco VS Lugo B
1 Goals Scored 1.5
1.75 Goals Conceded 0.5
50% Over 1.5 38%
50% Over 2.5 38%
38% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Barco

(Home)
06 Sept
Arenteiro
0 : 1
Barco
19 Aug
UD Ourense
2 : 0
Barco
10 May
Estradense
3 : 1
Barco
03 May
Barco
1 : 2
Somozas
26 Apr
Montaneros
0 : 0
Barco
Page 1 of 7

Lugo B

(Away)
10 May
Racing Club Villalbes
2 : 1
Lugo B
03 May
Lugo B
5 : 1
Barbadas-Bentraces
26 Apr
Alondras
0 : 4
Lugo B
19 Apr
Viveiro
0 : 0
Lugo B
11 Apr
Lugo B
0 : 0
Gran Pena
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Arosa SC 34 20 10 4 58:35 70
2 Compostela 34 19 11 4 55:28 68
3 Atletico Arteixo 34 16 10 8 54:44 58
4 Estradense 34 14 11 9 46:33 53
5 Racing Club Villalbes 34 13 13 8 36:29 52
6 Gran Pena 34 13 12 9 57:42 51
7 Somozas 34 13 12 9 37:32 51
8 CD Boiro 34 13 12 9 45:29 51
9 Lugo B 34 12 12 10 41:35 48
10 Montaneros 34 12 12 10 48:42 48
11 Barco 34 13 7 14 35:41 46
12 Alondras 34 12 9 13 45:48 45
13 Celtiga 34 11 7 16 47:48 40
14 Viveiro 34 9 11 14 27:41 38
15 Silva SD 34 9 9 16 36:48 36
16 Cambados 34 4 14 16 24:43 26
17 Noia 34 6 7 21 28:57 25
18 Barbadas-Bentraces 34 4 7 23 25:69 19
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 1 2025/2026 (Play Offs)