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Bare vs Progresso

Brazil Brazil

Roraimense
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Match Events

2' Event
Carlinhos Souza
24' Event
Anderson Banana
80' Event
Airton Junior

AI Match Summary

The Roraimense game between Bare and Progresso finished 4-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Bare.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

51%
Bare
15%
Draws
34%
Progresso
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Bare

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Bare come out ahead of Progresso on wins alone.
  • Model gives Bare a 51% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Roraimense form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 82%).
  • These two have met 3 times recently and Bare have taken 3 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 82%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 24%
Bare Clean Sheet 68%
Progresso Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Bare Progresso
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 13 2
Draws 3 3
Losses 14 25
Goals Scored 1.57 0.63
Goals Conceded 1.3 3.9
Expected Goals (xG) 2.88 1.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 14, 2026 Roraimense
Bare vs Progresso
4:0
Mar 26, 2025 Roraimense
Progresso vs Bare
0:7
Apr 15, 2023 Roraimense
Bare vs Progresso
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Bare Compare

Top Goalscorer Carlinhos Souza
1 Goals
Assists Leader Anderson Banana
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.22
Avg xA / game 1.44

Progresso Compare

Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.59

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Bare 95 / 100
Progresso 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Bare Progresso

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Bare Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 3:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Progresso's defensive record shows goals conceded in 93% of 30 matches.

H2H data points to 4.00 goals as a typical output.

Attacking prowess: Bare scored in 67% of their last 30 outings.

Bare has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Bare VS Progresso
2 Goals Scored 1
1.13 Goals Conceded 3.75
88% Over 1.5 100%
75% Over 2.5 100%
13% Over 3.5 75%

Recent Form & Match History

Bare

(Home)
01 Apr
Gremio Atletico Sampaio
2 : 0
Bare
21 Mar
Sao Raimundo RR
0 : 1
Bare
17 Mar
Gremio Atletico Sampaio
1 : 0
Bare
14 Mar
Bare
4 : 0
Progresso
11 Mar
Atl. Rio Negro (Roraima)
1 : 4
Bare
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Progresso

(Away)
18 Mar
Nautico FC
2 : 0
Progresso
14 Mar
Bare
4 : 0
Progresso
11 Mar
Atl. Roraima
1 : 4
Progresso
06 Mar
Progresso
0 : 7
River Esporte Clube
28 Feb
Progresso
3 : 1
Atl. Rio Negro (Roraima)
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Sao Raimundo RR 8 6 2 0 28:5 20
2 Monte Roraima 8 5 3 0 18:8 18
3 Gremio Atletico Sampaio 8 5 2 1 21:8 17
4 Bare 8 5 0 3 17:7 15
5 River Esporte Clube 8 4 3 1 22:8 15
6 Progresso 8 2 0 6 8:25 6
7 Atl. Rio Negro (Roraima) 8 2 0 6 7:17 6
8 Nautico FC 8 1 1 6 3:17 4
9 Atl. Roraima 8 0 1 7 5:34 1
Promotion - Roraimense (Play Offs)