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Bari vs Crotone - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Italy Italy

Serie C - Group C Stadio San Nicola, Bari
Sun, Oct 18, 2026
VS
01:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Bari host Crotone in the Serie C - Group C. Little to choose between these two on current form. Recent numbers: Bari at 1.24 goals for, 1.07 against; Crotone at 1.47 for, 1.33 against. Head-to-head, Bari have won 1 to Crotone's 3, with 1 draws. They last met on Feb 5, 2016, ending 2:3. Model xG sits at 1.50 vs 0.81, favoring Bari. Home (1) are the model's selection here, or BTTS: NG.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

57%
Bari
20%
Draws
23%
Crotone
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Bari

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

57% / Medium Confidence
  • Crotone haven't matched Bari's recent run of results.
  • 57% — that's where the model lands on Bari taking it.
  • Regular Serie C - Group C form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.200000000000003%
Bari Clean Sheet 68%
Crotone Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Bari Crotone
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 15 11
Draws 5 8
Losses 9 11
Goals Scored 1.24 1.47
Goals Conceded 1.07 1.33
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 0.81
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 5, 2016 Serie B
Bari vs Crotone
2:3
Sep 22, 2015 Serie B
Crotone vs Bari
4:1
Apr 11, 2015 Serie B
Bari vs Crotone
1:1
Nov 16, 2014 Serie B
Crotone vs Bari
3:0
Jun 3, 2014 Serie B
Crotone vs Bari
0:3

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Bari 86 / 100
Crotone 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Bari Crotone

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Bari Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Crotone let in goals in 83% of their last 30 matches.

H2H data points to 3.60 goals as a typical output.

Attacking prowess: Bari scored in 66% of their last 29 outings.

Bari has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Bari VS Crotone
1.5 Goals Scored 1
0.63 Goals Conceded 1.5
63% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 50%
0% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Bari

(Home)
10 Oct
Bari
2 : 0
Giugliano
04 Oct
Salernitana
2 : 1
Bari
26 Sept
Bari
1 : 0
Cosenza
19 Sept
Sorrento
1 : 2
Bari
15 Sept
Bari
0 : 0
Potenza
Page 1 of 6

Crotone

(Away)
10 Oct
Crotone
2 : 3
Audace Cerignola
03 Oct
Catania
2 : 1
Crotone
26 Sept
Crotone
2 : 1
Salernitana
20 Sept
Monopoli
2 : 2
Crotone
15 Sept
Crotone
0 : 2
Inter U23
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Potenza 9 7 1 1 24:12 22
2 Bari 9 6 1 2 13:6 19
3 Sorrento 9 6 0 3 14:10 18
4 Catania 9 5 1 3 17:10 16
5 Casertana 9 4 3 2 15:13 15
6 Audace Cerignola 9 4 2 3 14:9 14
7 Inter U23 8 4 1 3 16:13 13
8 Scafatese 8 3 4 1 13:11 13
9 Salernitana 9 3 4 2 12:10 13
10 Picerno 9 4 0 5 17:17 12
11 Cavese 9 3 3 3 15:15 12
12 Monopoli 9 3 3 3 7:7 12
13 Foggia 9 3 2 4 9:10 11
14 Casarano 9 3 2 4 10:13 11
15 A.C. Savoia 9 2 4 3 11:12 10
16 Barletta 9 1 5 3 12:15 8
17 Altamura 9 2 2 5 4:13 8
18 Giugliano 9 2 1 6 12:22 7
19 Cosenza 9 1 2 6 7:19 5
20 Crotone 9 1 3 5 10:15 0
Promotion - Serie B 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - Serie C - Group A (Play Offs)
Promotion - Serie C - Group A (Play Offs)
Promotion - Serie C - Group A (Play Offs)
Promotion - Serie C - Group A (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie C - Group A (Play Out)