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Stadium Background

Baroka vs The Bees

South Africa South Africa

Motsepe Foundation Championship 2025/2026 Old Peter Mokaba Stadium, Polokwane
Baroka Logo

Baroka

1 - 0
FT
The Bees Logo

The Bees

Our Tip
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Baroka in this Motsepe Foundation Championship 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Baroka.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

32%
Baroka
20%
Draws
48%
The Bees
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: The Bees

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

48% / Medium Confidence
  • The Bees have won more games recently than Baroka.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
  • European nights carry their own weight — this Motsepe Foundation Championship 2025/2026 fixture won't be treated like a routine game.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 73%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28.8%
Baroka Clean Sheet 15%
The Bees Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Baroka The Bees
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 4 7
Draws 8 7
Losses 18 16
Goals Scored 0.63 1
Goals Conceded 1.43 1.2
Expected Goals (xG) 0.71 1.54
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 14, 2026 Motsepe Foundation Championship
Baroka vs The Bees
1:0
Aug 24, 2025 Motsepe Foundation Championship
The Bees vs Baroka
2:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Baroka 31 / 100
The Bees 41 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Baroka The Bees

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick The Bees Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: The Bees conceded in 77% of 30 recent games.

H2H data points to 2.00 goals as a typical output.

The Bees lost 4 of their last 5 games.

Attacking prowess: Baroka scored in 43% of their last 30 outings.

Scoring Trends

Baroka VS The Bees
0.29 Goals Scored 1.5
1.57 Goals Conceded 1.13
71% Over 1.5 75%
29% Over 2.5 50%
0% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Baroka

(Home)
17 May
Baroka
0 : 0
Upington City
10 May
Cape Town City
1 : 0
Baroka
01 May
Real Native
2 : 0
Baroka
26 Apr
Baroka
0 : 3
Kruger United
22 Apr
Baroka
1 : 1
Gomora United
Page 1 of 6

The Bees

(Away)
19 Sept
The Bees
1 : 0
Lerumo Lions
12 Sept
Hungry Lions
2 : 0
The Bees
06 Sept
The Bees
0 : 1
Gomora United
29 Aug
Magesi
1 : 0
The Bees
22 Aug
The Bees
1 : 2
Highbury
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Kruger United 30 18 8 4 50:34 62
2 Cape Town City 30 15 9 6 45:23 54
3 Milford 30 16 6 8 40:24 54
4 Real Native 30 14 10 6 46:27 52
5 Hungry Lions 30 14 10 6 41:25 52
6 Highbury 30 12 6 12 30:33 42
7 Upington City 30 10 9 11 35:33 39
8 Lerumo Lions 30 10 9 11 36:36 39
9 Venda 30 9 9 12 24:29 36
10 The Bees 30 9 8 13 37:36 35
11 Pretoria U. 30 8 11 11 37:41 35
12 Leicesterford City 30 9 7 14 25:43 34
13 Gomora United 30 6 15 9 28:39 33
14 Midlands Wanderers 30 8 9 13 28:44 33
15 Black Leopards 30 6 10 14 26:38 28
16 Baroka 30 4 8 18 20:43 20
Promotion - Betway Premiership (Main)
Promotion - Betway Premiership 2025/2026 (Relegation Group)