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Barry Town vs Caernarfon

Wales Wales

Cymru Premier 2025/2026 Jenner Park, Barry
Our Tip

Match Events

20'
Sub
Davies K. In: Williams E.
Out: Davies K.
36'
Lock J.
50' Event
Hulbert O.

AI Match Summary

The Cymru Premier 2025/2026 game between Barry Town and Caernarfon finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Barry Town.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

57%
Barry Town
15%
Draws
28%
Caernarfon
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Barry Town

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

57% / Medium Confidence
  • Barry Town carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model gives Barry Town a 57% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73%
Barry Town Clean Sheet 20%
Caernarfon Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Barry Town Caernarfon
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 18 12
Draws 2 6
Losses 9 10
Goals Scored 1.72 1.61
Goals Conceded 0.97 1.54
Expected Goals (xG) 1.94 1.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 21, 2026 Cymru Premier
Barry Town vs Caernarfon
2:1
Feb 14, 2026 Cymru Premier
Caernarfon vs Barry Town
0:2
Oct 11, 2025 Cymru Premier
Barry Town vs Caernarfon
2:2
Sep 7, 2025 Cymru Premier
Caernarfon vs Barry Town
3:1
Apr 26, 2025 Cymru Premier
Caernarfon vs Barry Town
5:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Barry Town Compare

Top Goalscorer Hulbert O.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Owen I.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.49
Avg xA / game 0.97

Caernarfon Compare

Top Goalscorer Harrison K.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.59

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Barry Town 58 / 100
Caernarfon 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Barry Town Caernarfon

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Barry Town Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Barry Town found the back of the net in 86% of recent matches (29 games).

These sides typically produce 4.00 goals when they meet.

Caernarfon has conceded goals in 71% of their last 28 outings.

Recent resilience: Barry Town stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Barry Town VS Caernarfon
2.13 Goals Scored 1
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.75
75% Over 1.5 75%
75% Over 2.5 75%
38% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Barry Town

(Home)
15 Aug
Barry Town
1 : 0
Cardiff Metropolitan University
07 Aug
Flint Town
2 : 3
Barry Town
31 Jul
Barry Town
2 : 1
Cambrian United
25 Jul
Barry Town
0 : 1
Gloucester City
18 Jul
Weymouth
2 : 3
Barry Town
Page 1 of 6

Caernarfon

(Away)
15 Aug
Caernarfon
3 : 0
Colwyn Bay
07 Aug
Caernarfon
1 : 2
Penybont
02 Aug
Connahs Q.
1 : 2
Caernarfon
16 Jul
Levadia
5 : 0
Caernarfon
09 Jul
Caernarfon
0 : 5
Levadia
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 TNS 32 26 2 4 81:25 80
2 Connahs Q. 32 16 10 6 61:38 58
3 Barry Town 32 12 10 10 43:33 46
4 Caernarfon 32 12 9 11 56:47 45
5 Colwyn Bay 32 12 9 11 41:37 45
6 Penybont 32 11 8 13 39:49 41
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Promotion - Cymru Premier 2025/2026 (Conference League - Play Offs)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Promotion - Cymru Premier 2025/2026 (Conference League - Play Offs)