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Basel vs Luzern - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Switzerland Switzerland

Super League St. Jakob-Park, Basel
Sun, Nov 22, 2026
VS
03:30 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Basel host Luzern in the Super League. Expect goals in this one — both sides have been finding the net. Recent numbers: Basel at 1.82 goals for, 2.25 against; Luzern at 1.93 for, 1.69 against. Past meetings favor Basel slightly — 3-2-0 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Sep 13, 2026, ending 2:4. Model xG sits at 2.06 vs 2.50, favoring Luzern. The model tips Over 2.5 goals in this one.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

43%
Basel
15%
Draws
42%
Luzern
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Basel

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

42% / Low Confidence
  • Luzern have won more games recently than Basel.
  • 42% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 86%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 86%
Over 3.5 Goals 63%
Over 4.5 Goals 28%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 77%
Basel Clean Sheet 10%
Luzern Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Basel Luzern
Matches Played 28 29
Wins 10 14
Draws 4 5
Losses 14 10
Goals Scored 1.82 1.93
Goals Conceded 2.25 1.69
Expected Goals (xG) 2.06 2.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 13, 2026 Super League
Luzern vs Basel
2:4
Feb 22, 2026 Super League
Luzern vs Basel
4:2
Dec 17, 2025 Super League
Luzern vs Basel
1:2
Sep 28, 2025 Super League
Basel vs Luzern
1:2
May 24, 2025 Super League
Basel vs Luzern
4:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Basel 30 / 100
Luzern 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Basel Luzern

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Luzern Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Games between these two average 4.40 goals.

Basel found the back of the net in 75% of recent matches (28 games).

Defensive concern: Luzern conceded in 76% of 29 recent games.

Luzern's recent record shows 3 losses from the last 5 matches.

Scoring Trends

Basel VS Luzern
1.88 Goals Scored 2
3 Goals Conceded 2.25
100% Over 1.5 88%
100% Over 2.5 75%
63% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Basel

(Home)
16 Oct
Stade Nyonnais
0 : 3
Basel
11 Oct
Vaduz
3 : 0
Basel
03 Oct
Winterthur
7 : 3
Basel
20 Sept
Basel
1 : 3
St. Gallen
13 Sept
Luzern
2 : 4
Basel
Page 1 of 6

Luzern

(Away)
24 Oct
Zurich
2 : 1
Luzern
17 Oct
Winterthur
0 : 1
Luzern
10 Oct
Lugano
4 : 0
Luzern
03 Oct
Freiburg
4 : 2
Luzern
19 Sept
Luzern
5 : 1
Grasshoppers
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Lugano 10 9 1 0 31:7 28
2 Young Boys 11 7 4 0 35:18 25
3 Sion 10 6 1 3 23:17 19
4 Zurich 11 5 2 4 20:23 17
5 Servette 11 5 1 5 16:14 16
6 St. Gallen 11 5 1 5 17:21 16
7 Basel 10 4 1 5 17:20 13
8 Luzern 11 3 3 5 18:24 12
9 Thun 10 3 1 6 17:27 10
10 Vaduz 11 3 0 8 22:23 9
11 Grasshoppers 10 2 2 6 13:26 8
12 Lausanne 10 1 3 6 7:16 6
Promotion - Super League (Championship Group)
Relegation - Super League (Relegation Group)