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Bassano Virtus vs Lavarian Mortean Esperia - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group C Stadio Rino Mercante, Bassano del Grappa
Our Tip

Match Events

32' Event
Aloia D.
68' Event
Gozzerini M.
(Penalty)
78' Event
Toffoli S.
(Penalty)

AI Match Summary

The Serie D - Group C game between Bassano Virtus and Lavarian Mortean Esperia finished 1-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Lavarian Mortean Esperia.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

42%
Bassano Virtus
35%
Draws
23%
Lavarian Mortean Esperia
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Bassano Virtus

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

42% / Low Confidence
  • Bassano Virtus carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Bassano Virtus are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • Regular Serie D - Group C form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69.8%
Bassano Virtus Clean Sheet 20%
Lavarian Mortean Esperia Clean Sheet 17%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Bassano Virtus Lavarian Mortean Esperia
Matches Played 29 6
Wins 9 2
Draws 14 2
Losses 6 2
Goals Scored 1.07 0.83
Goals Conceded 0.69 1.17
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 0.69
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 6, 2026 Serie D - Group C
Bassano Virtus vs Lavarian Mortean Esperia
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Bassano Virtus Compare

Top Goalscorer Aloia D.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.44

Lavarian Mortean Esperia Compare

Avg xG / game 0.63
Avg xA / game 0.38

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Bassano Virtus 85 / 100
Lavarian Mortean Esperia 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Bassano Virtus Lavarian Mortean Esperia

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Bassano Virtus Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Solid form: Bassano Virtus remains unbeaten in 5 of 5 recent matches.

Bassano Virtus found the back of the net in 62% of recent matches (29 games).

Defensive concern: Lavarian Mortean Esperia conceded in 67% of 6 recent games.

H2H data points to 3.00 goals as a typical output.

Scoring Trends

Bassano Virtus VS Lavarian Mortean Esperia
0.88 Goals Scored 0.63
0.75 Goals Conceded 0.88
38% Over 1.5 50%
25% Over 2.5 38%
13% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Bassano Virtus

(Home)
04 Oct
Legnago Salus
0 : 2
Bassano Virtus
27 Sept
Bassano Virtus
2 : 0
Schio
20 Sept
Triestina
1 : 1
Bassano Virtus
16 Sept
Bassano Virtus
0 : 0
Mestre
13 Sept
Conegliano
0 : 0
Bassano Virtus
Page 1 of 6

Lavarian Mortean Esperia

(Away)
03 Oct
Lavarian Mortean Esperia
0 : 3
Cjarlins Muzane
27 Sept
Conegliano
0 : 1
Lavarian Mortean Esperia
20 Sept
Lavarian Mortean Esperia
1 : 2
Campodarsego
16 Sept
FC Obermais
1 : 1
Lavarian Mortean Esperia
13 Sept
Lavarian Mortean Esperia
0 : 0
Altavilla
Page 1 of 2

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Cjarlins Muzane 6 5 0 1 17:5 15
2 Luparense FC 6 4 2 0 14:3 14
3 Calcio San Dona 6 3 2 1 6:4 11
4 Mestre 6 2 4 0 9:6 10
5 Campodarsego 6 3 1 2 10:8 10
6 Clodiense 6 3 1 2 9:8 10
7 Bassano Virtus 6 2 3 1 6:3 9
8 Calvi Noale 6 2 2 2 5:5 8
9 Lavarian Mortean Esperia 6 2 2 2 5:7 8
10 Este 6 2 1 3 5:5 7
11 Legnago Salus 6 2 1 3 6:9 7
12 Conegliano 6 2 1 3 3:7 7
13 Altavilla 6 1 3 2 14:9 6
14 Triestina 6 1 3 2 6:8 6
15 Virtus Bolzano 6 2 0 4 5:18 6
16 FC Obermais 6 1 2 3 6:11 5
17 Schio 6 0 4 2 3:6 4
18 Brian Lignano 6 1 0 5 7:14 3
Promotion - Serie D - Group C (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group C (Play Out)