Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Bastia vs Boulogne

France France

Ligue 2 2025/2026 Stade Armand Cesari, Bastia
Our Tip

Match Events

23' Event
El Farissi A.
Assist: Fatou C.
26'
Sebas J.
46'
Sub
Ariss Z. In: Bohnert F.
Out: Ariss Z.

AI Match Summary

Boulogne in this Ligue 2 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 0-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Boulogne.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

42%
Bastia
20%
Draws
38%
Boulogne
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Bastia

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

67% / Medium Confidence
  • Bastia average 1.57 goals a game right now, well clear of Boulogne's 0.5.
  • Win probability leans Bastia's way, sitting at 42%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 33%
Over 3.5 Goals 21%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 66.6%
Bastia Clean Sheet 20%
Boulogne Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Bastia Boulogne
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 8 8
Draws 10 8
Losses 11 12
Goals Scored 1.57 0.5
Goals Conceded 1.86 1.5
Expected Goals (xG) 1.57 0.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.86 1.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 13, 2026 Ligue 2
Bastia vs Boulogne
0:1
Sep 16, 2025 Ligue 2
Boulogne vs Bastia
1:0
Jan 22, 2021 Ligue 3
Boulogne vs Bastia
1:2
Sep 3, 2020 Ligue 3
Bastia vs Boulogne
0:1
Jan 12, 2018 Ligue 3
Boulogne vs Bastia
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Bastia Compare

Avg xG / game 1.21
Avg xA / game 0.79

Boulogne Compare

Top Goalscorer El Farissi A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.45
Avg xA / game 0.28

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Bastia 42 / 100
Boulogne 36 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Bastia Boulogne

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Bastia's goal record stands at 62% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Boulogne let in goals in 64% of their last 28 matches.

Solid form: Bastia remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Boulogne lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Bastia VS Boulogne
1.57 Goals Scored 0.5
1.86 Goals Conceded 1.5
86% Over 1.5 38%
29% Over 2.5 38%
29% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Bastia

(Home)
24 Jul
Aubagne FC
1 : 1
Bastia
10 Jul
Rodez
5 : 3
Bastia
09 May
Bastia
0 : 2
Le Mans
02 May
Guingamp
0 : 1
Bastia
24 Apr
Clermont
1 : 1
Bastia
Page 1 of 6

Boulogne

(Away)
25 Jul
Boulogne
0 : 1
Rouen
24 Jul
Amiens SC
0 : 1
Boulogne
18 Jul
Lens
4 : 1
Boulogne
15 Jul
Fleury-Merogis
0 : 2
Boulogne
08 Jul
Boulogne
0 : 1
Versailles
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Troyes34207760:3367
2Le Mans341614450:3162
3St Etienne341861059:3860
4Red Star341610845:3758
5Rodez341513645:3958
6Reims341414653:3556
7Annecy341571249:3952
8Montpellier341491141:3151
9Pau341291348:6245
10Dunkerque3411101353:4543
11Guingamp3410101442:4940
12Grenoble348151133:3939
13Clermont349101538:4437
14Nancy349101535:5237
15Boulogne34991634:4936
16Laval346141430:4832
17Bastia345131623:3928
18Amiens SC34662237:6524
19AC Ajaccio00000:00
Promotion - Ligue 1 (Main)
Promotion - Ligue 1 2025/2026 (Relegation - Play Offs)
Promotion - Ligue 1 2025/2026 (Relegation - Play Offs)
Relegation - Ligue 2 2025/2026 (Relegation)
Relegation - Ligue 3 (Main)