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Bastia vs Boulogne - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

France France

Ligue 2 2025/2026 Stade Armand Cesari, Bastia
Bastia Logo

Bastia

0 - 1
FT
Boulogne Logo

Boulogne

Our Tip

Match Events

23' Event
El Farissi A.
Assist: Fatou C.
26'
Sebas J.
46'
Sub
Ariss Z. In: Bohnert F.
Out: Ariss Z.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Boulogne in this Ligue 2 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 0-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Boulogne.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

41%
Bastia
35%
Draws
24%
Boulogne
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Bastia

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

41% / Low Confidence
  • Bastia have won more games recently than Boulogne.
  • Win probability leans Bastia's way, sitting at 60%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 50%
Over 2.5 Goals 21%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 27.6%
Bastia Clean Sheet 68%
Boulogne Clean Sheet 19%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Bastia Boulogne
Matches Played 31 28
Wins 8 5
Draws 12 11
Losses 11 12
Goals Scored 1.1 0.75
Goals Conceded 1.23 1.29
Expected Goals (xG) 0.75 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 13, 2026 Ligue 2
Bastia vs Boulogne
0:1
Sep 16, 2025 Ligue 2
Boulogne vs Bastia
1:0
Jan 22, 2021 Ligue 3
Boulogne vs Bastia
1:2
Sep 3, 2020 Ligue 3
Bastia vs Boulogne
0:1
Jan 12, 2018 Ligue 3
Boulogne vs Bastia
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Bastia Compare

Avg xG / game 0.58
Avg xA / game 0.38

Boulogne Compare

Top Goalscorer El Farissi A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Bastia 68 / 100
Boulogne 20 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Bastia Boulogne

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Bastia Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Bastia's goal record stands at 65% scoring rate across 31 recent games.

Boulogne let in goals in 61% of their last 28 matches.

Solid form: Bastia remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Games between these two average 1.20 goals.

Scoring Trends

Bastia VS Boulogne
0.75 Goals Scored 0.5
1.25 Goals Conceded 0.75
50% Over 1.5 50%
25% Over 2.5 13%
13% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Bastia

(Home)
01 Oct
Bastia
1 : 1
Orleans
26 Sept
Paris 13 Atletico
1 : 0
Bastia
17 Sept
Bastia
1 : 1
Cannes
12 Sept
Bourg Peronnas
0 : 1
Bastia
05 Sept
Bastia
0 : 3
Amiens SC
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Boulogne

(Away)
02 Oct
Le Havre
6 : 1
Boulogne
19 Sept
Boulogne
1 : 2
Nantes
11 Sept
Clermont
0 : 0
Boulogne
04 Sept
Boulogne
1 : 1
Dijon
28 Aug
Montpellier
0 : 0
Boulogne
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Troyes 34 20 7 7 60:33 67
2 Le Mans 34 16 14 4 50:31 62
3 St Etienne 34 18 6 10 59:38 60
4 Red Star 34 16 10 8 45:37 58
5 Rodez 34 15 13 6 45:39 58
6 Reims 34 14 14 6 53:35 56
7 Annecy 34 15 7 12 49:39 52
8 Montpellier 34 14 9 11 41:31 51
9 Pau 34 12 9 13 48:62 45
10 Dunkerque 34 11 10 13 53:45 43
11 Guingamp 34 10 10 14 42:49 40
12 Grenoble 34 8 15 11 33:39 39
13 Clermont 34 9 10 15 38:44 37
14 Nancy 34 9 10 15 35:52 37
15 Boulogne 34 9 9 16 34:49 36
16 Laval 34 6 14 14 30:48 32
17 Bastia 34 5 13 16 23:39 28
18 Amiens SC 34 6 6 22 37:65 24
19 AC Ajaccio 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
Promotion - Ligue 1 (Main)
Promotion - Ligue 1 2025/2026 (Relegation - Play Offs)
Promotion - Ligue 1 2025/2026 (Relegation - Play Offs)
Relegation - Ligue 2 2025/2026 (Relegation)
Relegation - Ligue 3 (Main)