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Bautzen vs Arnstadt Prediction & H2H Stats

Germany Germany

Oberliga NOFV- Sud 2023/2024
Our Tip

Match Events

37' Event
Kappler J.
78' Event
Baudisch F.

AI Match Summary

The Oberliga NOFV- Sud 2023/2024 game between Bautzen and Arnstadt finished 2-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Bautzen.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

47%
Bautzen
30%
Draws
23%
Arnstadt
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Bautzen

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Bautzen carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 47% — that's where the model lands on Bautzen taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 81%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 100%
Over 2.5 Goals 81%
Over 3.5 Goals 75%
Over 4.5 Goals 34%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 76.2%
Bautzen Clean Sheet 12%
Arnstadt Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Bautzen Arnstadt
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 12 4
Draws 8 5
Losses 10 21
Goals Scored 1.77 1.13
Goals Conceded 2.1 2.6
Expected Goals (xG) 3.06 1.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 11, 2024 Oberliga NOFV- Sud
Bautzen vs Arnstadt
2:0
Jul 29, 2023 Oberliga NOFV- Sud
Arnstadt vs Bautzen
2:2
Apr 16, 2022 Oberliga NOFV- Sud
Arnstadt vs Bautzen
1:1
Aug 28, 2021 Oberliga NOFV- Sud
Bautzen vs Arnstadt
6:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Bautzen Compare

Top Goalscorer Kappler J.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Baudisch F.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.35
Avg xA / game 1.53

Arnstadt Compare

Avg xG / game 1.59
Avg xA / game 0.97

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Bautzen 83 / 100
Arnstadt 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Bautzen Arnstadt

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Bautzen Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Bautzen scored in 80% of their last 30 games.

Arnstadt has conceded goals in 93% of their last 30 outings.

Historical meetings average 3.75 goals per match.

Bautzen went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Bautzen VS Arnstadt
2.13 Goals Scored 2
1.5 Goals Conceded 4
100% Over 1.5 100%
75% Over 2.5 100%
50% Over 3.5 100%

Recent Form & Match History

Bautzen

(Home)
26 Sept
Krieschow
1 : 1
Bautzen
20 Sept
Bautzen
3 : 2
Glauchau
12 Sept
Einheit Wernigerode
2 : 2
Bautzen
28 Aug
Bautzen
0 : 3
Auerbach
16 Aug
Einheit Rudolstadt
0 : 0
Bautzen
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Arnstadt

(Away)
15 Jul
Einheit Rudolstadt
4 : 2
Arnstadt
09 Jul
Arnstadt
1 : 6
Einheit Rudolstadt
08 Jun
Arnstadt
0 : 6
Bischofswerdaer
02 Jun
Krieschow
3 : 1
Arnstadt
18 May
Sandersdorf
1 : 2
Arnstadt
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Bischofswerdaer 30 21 7 2 78:33 70
2 Plauen 30 22 4 4 63:19 70
3 Halberstadt 30 18 6 6 71:45 60
4 Magdeburg II 30 17 4 9 70:43 55
5 Auerbach 30 17 4 9 64:38 55
6 Krieschow 30 14 4 12 59:52 46
7 Sandersdorf 30 13 3 14 49:46 42
8 Freital 30 12 4 14 43:46 40
9 Einheit Wernigerode 30 10 6 14 54:67 36
10 Bautzen 30 9 8 13 45:52 35
11 Einheit Rudolstadt 30 10 4 16 40:53 34
12 Grimma 30 9 5 16 40:63 32
13 Ludwigsfelder 30 8 7 15 39:50 31
14 Halle 30 8 6 16 47:62 30
15 Motor Marienberg 30 6 4 20 33:93 22
16 Arnstadt 30 5 6 19 35:68 21
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