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Bavois vs Lugano II

Switzerland Switzerland

Promotion League 2025/2026
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AI Match Summary

Bavois play Lugano II in the Promotion League 2025/2026. It looks like a close match. Recently, Bavois averaged 1.79 goals scored and 1.62 conceded. Lugano II averaged 1.27 goals scored and 2.1 conceded. In past meetings, Bavois won 2, Lugano II won 1, and they drew 2. Their last match on Apr 25, 2026 ended 4:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 2.13 for Bavois and 1.56 for Lugano II. This points to a Bavois double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

44%
Bavois
30%
Draws
26%
Lugano II
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Bavois

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

77% / High Confidence
  • Bavois picked up more points recently compared to Lugano II.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (2.13 vs 1.56 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 64%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 64%
Over 3.5 Goals 38%
Over 4.5 Goals 19%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 66%
Bavois Clean Sheet 15%
Lugano II Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 79%
Second Half Goal 84%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Bavois Lugano II
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 13 6
Draws 4 10
Losses 12 14
Goals Scored 1.79 1.27
Goals Conceded 1.62 2.1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.63 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.00 2.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 25, 2026 Promotion League
Bavois vs Lugano II
4:1
Oct 19, 2025 Promotion League
Lugano II vs Bavois
1:1
Apr 12, 2025 Promotion League
Lugano II vs Bavois
0:0
Oct 12, 2024 Promotion League
Bavois vs Lugano II
3:4
Mar 23, 2024 Promotion League
Bavois vs Lugano II
3:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Bavois Compare

Top Goalscorer Figueiredo G.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Bega I.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.81

Lugano II Compare

Top Goalscorer Parente J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Bavois 43 / 100
Lugano II 25 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Bavois Lugano II

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Bavois or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +22.3%
2.78
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +10.1%
1.72
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Bavois attacking → ← attacking Lugano II

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Bavois scored in 86% of their last 29 games.

Lugano II let in goals in 83% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 3.60 goals.

Bavois went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Lugano II lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

43 Points in last 5 28
1.63 Goals expected (xG) 1.13
2.00 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 2.63

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Kriens342545100:4379
2Bruhl SG34226687:4672
3Biel34197878:4664
4Basel II34178965:4859
5Bavois341741364:5355
6Young Boys II341591066:5254
7Schaffhausen341651351:4653
8Bulle341561370:6451
9Cham341481262:6150
10Grand-Saconnex3411101371:6943
11Zurich II341181559:6241
12Breitenrain341181547:5141
13Luzern II3410101480:8340
14FC Kreuzlingen348131343:6637
15Lugano II348121445:7536
16Paradiso348111551:6535
17Lausanne II34942160:8431
18Vevey34152828:1132