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Bay FC W vs North Carolina Courage W

USA USA

NWSL Women PayPal Park
Our Tip

Match Events

14' Event
Lema K.
Assist: Kundananji R.
17' Event
Lema K.
Assist: Pfeiffer A.
46'
Sub
Rauch F. In: Parkinson E.
Out: Rauch F.

AI Match Summary

Bay FC W in this NWSL Women matchup, with the score ending 3-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Bay FC W.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

50%
Bay FC W
28%
Draws
22%
North Carolina Courage W
Draw rate projection: 28% Favored: Bay FC W

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

76% / High Confidence
  • Bay FC W haven't matched North Carolina Courage W's recent run of results.
  • Win probability leans Bay FC W's way, sitting at 50%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Bay FC W have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75%
Bay FC W Clean Sheet 16%
North Carolina Courage W Clean Sheet 16%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Bay FC W North Carolina Courage W
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 6 12
Draws 8 8
Losses 15 9
Goals Scored 0.88 1.88
Goals Conceded 1.13 1
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 1.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.13 1.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 18, 2026 NWSL Women
Bay FC W vs North Carolina Courage W
3:0
Mar 28, 2026 NWSL Women
North Carolina Courage W vs Bay FC W
1:3
Oct 18, 2025 NWSL Women
Bay FC W vs North Carolina Courage W
1:4
Apr 19, 2025 NWSL Women
North Carolina Courage W vs Bay FC W
0:1
Oct 20, 2024 NWSL Women
Bay FC W vs North Carolina Courage W
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Bay FC W Compare

Top Goalscorer Lema K.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Kundananji R.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.44

North Carolina Courage W Compare

Avg xG / game 1.71
Avg xA / game 1.04

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Bay FC W 48 / 100
North Carolina Courage W 23 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Bay FC W North Carolina Courage W

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick BAY Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Bay FC W's goal record stands at 72% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

North Carolina Courage W has conceded goals in 76% of their last 29 outings.

Historical meetings average 2.80 goals per match.

Bay FC W went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Bay FC W VS North Carolina Courage W
0.88 Goals Scored 1.88
1.13 Goals Conceded 1
63% Over 1.5 75%
25% Over 2.5 75%
25% Over 3.5 38%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1San Diego Wave W1692523:1729
2Washington Spirit W1483322:1127
3Portland Thorns FC W1583424:1627
4Gotham FC W1483316:827
5Kansas City Current W1581623:2225
6Utah Royals W1473421:1624
7North Carolina Courage W1363420:1621
8Orlando Pride W1562721:2020
9Angel City W1361620:1419
10Seattle Reign W1352613:1617
11Denver Summit W1344519:1816
12Boston Legacy W1544716:2116
13Houston Dash W1443717:2315
14Bay FC W1343613:1915
15Chicago Stars W1440108:2812
16Racing Louisville W13211015:267