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Bay FC W vs Portland Thorns FC W - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

USA USA

NWSL Women PayPal Park, San Jose, CA
Sun, Oct 18, 2026
VS
09:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Bay FC W host Portland Thorns FC W in the NWSL Women. Form suggests where the edge lies here. Recent numbers: Bay FC W at 1.03 goals for, 1.52 against; Portland Thorns FC W at 1.77 for, 1.52 against. Head-to-head, Bay FC W have won 2 to Portland Thorns FC W's 3, with 0 draws. They last met on May 21, 2026, ending 2:0. xG projections (1.13 - 1.56) back Portland Thorns FC W to edge this. Away (2) are the model's selection here, or BTTS: GG.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
Bay FC W
30%
Draws
39%
Portland Thorns FC W
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Portland Thorns FC W

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

39% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Portland Thorns FC W lately — more wins on the board than Bay FC W.
  • 39% — that's where the model lands on Portland Thorns FC W taking it.
  • Regular NWSL Women form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.8%
Bay FC W Clean Sheet 15%
Portland Thorns FC W Clean Sheet 13%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Bay FC W Portland Thorns FC W
Matches Played 29 31
Wins 8 13
Draws 5 8
Losses 16 10
Goals Scored 1.03 1.77
Goals Conceded 1.52 1.52
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.56
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 21, 2026 NWSL Women
Portland Thorns FC W vs Bay FC W
2:0
Oct 5, 2025 NWSL Women
Portland Thorns FC W vs Bay FC W
2:1
Jun 7, 2025 NWSL Women
Bay FC W vs Portland Thorns FC W
1:0
Aug 31, 2024 NWSL Women
Portland Thorns FC W vs Bay FC W
1:3
May 2, 2024 NWSL Women
Bay FC W vs Portland Thorns FC W
2:3

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Bay FC W 23 / 100
Portland Thorns FC W 48 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Bay FC W Portland Thorns FC W

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Portland Thorns FC W Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Bay FC W found the back of the net in 62% of recent matches (29 games).

Portland Thorns FC W's defensive record shows goals conceded in 71% of 31 matches.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Solid form: Bay FC W remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Bay FC W VS Portland Thorns FC W
1 Goals Scored 1.88
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.25
63% Over 1.5 88%
38% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Bay FC W

(Home)
03 Oct
Kansas City Current W
5 : 1
Bay FC W
27 Sept
Bay FC W
1 : 3
Orlando Pride W
20 Sept
Bay FC W
2 : 0
Racing Louisville W
17 Sept
Denver Summit W
2 : 2
Bay FC W
13 Sept
Seattle Reign W
2 : 0
Bay FC W
Page 1 of 6

Portland Thorns FC W

(Away)
04 Oct
Portland Thorns FC W
2 : 4
Boston Legacy W
27 Sept
Portland Thorns FC W
1 : 1
Houston Dash W
19 Sept
Orlando Pride W
1 : 4
Portland Thorns FC W
13 Sept
Portland Thorns FC W
1 : 1
Chicago Stars W
06 Sept
Portland Thorns FC W
1 : 2
Washington Spirit W
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Gotham FC W 27 16 7 4 35:21 55
2 San Diego Wave W 27 16 3 8 40:28 51
3 Washington Spirit W 27 15 4 8 39:26 49
4 Utah Royals W 27 14 4 9 44:35 46
5 Kansas City Current W 27 13 5 9 48:38 44
6 Angel City W 27 12 7 8 45:29 43
7 Portland Thorns FC W 27 12 7 8 45:39 43
8 North Carolina Courage W 27 13 3 11 50:39 42
9 Seattle Reign W 27 12 4 11 33:32 40
10 Denver Summit W 27 10 8 9 45:37 38
11 Orlando Pride W 27 10 3 14 36:43 33
12 Houston Dash W 27 8 6 13 34:39 30
13 Boston Legacy W 27 8 5 14 36:46 29
14 Bay FC W 27 7 5 15 28:42 26
15 Racing Louisville W 27 7 3 17 36:52 24
16 Chicago Stars W 27 5 2 20 15:63 17
Promotion - NWSL Women (Play Offs)