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Belize vs Costa Rica

North & Central America North & Central America

Gold Cup FFB Field
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Belize play Costa Rica in the Gold Cup. It looks like a close match. Recently, Belize averaged 1.24 goals scored and 1.66 conceded. Costa Rica averaged 1.87 goals scored and 1.37 conceded. In past meetings, Belize won 0, Costa Rica won 5, and they drew 0. Their last match on Mar 26, 2025 ended 6:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.75 for Belize and 1.68 for Costa Rica. This points to a Costa Rica double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

34%
Belize
18%
Draws
48%
Costa Rica
Draw rate projection: 18% Favored: Costa Rica

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

75% / High Confidence
  • Belize picked up more points recently compared to Costa Rica.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.75 vs 1.68 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 59%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 73%
Over 2.5 Goals 59%
Over 3.5 Goals 35%
Over 4.5 Goals 18%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 41%
Belize Clean Sheet 13%
Costa Rica Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 66%
Second Half Goal 69%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Belize Costa Rica
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 10 11
Draws 5 10
Losses 14 9
Goals Scored 1.24 1.87
Goals Conceded 1.66 1.37
Expected Goals (xG) 2.00 1.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.60 1.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 26, 2025 Gold Cup
Costa Rica vs Belize
6:1
Mar 22, 2025 Gold Cup
Belize vs Costa Rica
0:7
Jan 15, 2017 Copa Centroamericana
Belize vs Costa Rica
0:3
Jul 13, 2013 Gold Cup
Costa Rica vs Belize
1:0
Jan 19, 2013 Copa Centroamericana
Costa Rica vs Belize
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Belize Compare

Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 1

Costa Rica Compare

Top Goalscorer Zamora A.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Ugalde M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.59
Avg xA / game 0.97

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Belize 33 / 100
Costa Rica 45 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Belize Costa Rica

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Costa Rica or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +30.9%
3.85
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +11.5%
1.89
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Belize attacking → ← attacking Costa Rica

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Belize scored in 69% of their last 29 games.

Costa Rica let in goals in 67% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 3.80 goals.

Belize went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Costa Rica lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Moderate
Risk Factor

Busy schedule: Managers might rest key players, which can affect team cohesion.

Risk Factor

Cup knockout game. Winning is all that matters, which can lead to wild tactics or extra time.

Risk Factor

Pressure: A tense match where mistakes or cards can change things quickly.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

35 Points in last 5 43
2.00 Goals expected (xG) 1.75
1.60 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.50