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Belmont Swansea United vs Thornton Redbacks

Australia Australia

Northern NSW State League 2024
Our Tip

Match Events

5' Event
Lodge C.
20' Event
Woodbine A.
32' Event
Watson L.

AI Match Summary

The Northern NSW State League 2024 game between Belmont Swansea United and Thornton Redbacks finished 4-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Belmont Swansea United.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

90%
Belmont Swansea United
6%
Draws
4%
Thornton Redbacks
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Belmont Swansea United

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Belmont Swansea United come out ahead of Thornton Redbacks on wins alone.
  • Model gives Belmont Swansea United a 90% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 79.4%
Belmont Swansea United Clean Sheet 15%
Thornton Redbacks Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Belmont Swansea United Thornton Redbacks
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 13 6
Draws 7 6
Losses 11 18
Goals Scored 2.38 0
Goals Conceded 2.13 0

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 14, 2024 Northern NSW State League
Belmont Swansea United vs Thornton Redbacks
2:1
Jun 18, 2024 Northern NSW State League
Thornton Redbacks vs Belmont Swansea United
0:3
Mar 20, 2024 Northern NSW State League
Belmont Swansea United vs Thornton Redbacks
4:1
Sep 3, 2023 Northern NSW State League
Belmont Swansea United vs Thornton Redbacks
0:1
Jun 23, 2023 Northern NSW State League
Thornton Redbacks vs Belmont Swansea United
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Belmont Swansea United Compare

Top Goalscorer Lodge C.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Woodbine A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.83
Avg xA / game 1.19

Thornton Redbacks Compare

Top Goalscorer Watson L.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0
Avg xA / game 0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Belmont Swansea United 84 / 100
Thornton Redbacks 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Belmont Swansea United Thornton Redbacks

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick BEL Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Belmont Swansea United found the back of the net in 90% of recent matches (31 games).

Thornton Redbacks's defensive record shows goals conceded in 87% of 30 matches.

H2H data points to 3.00 goals as a typical output.

Belmont Swansea United went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Belmont Swansea United VS -
2.38 Goals Scored 0
2.13 Goals Conceded 0
100% Over 1.5 0%
88% Over 2.5 0%
63% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Belmont Swansea United

(Home)
22 Jul
Newcastle Olympic
5 : 2
Belmont Swansea United
27 Jun
Charlestown Azzurri
1 : 3
Belmont Swansea United
20 Jun
Belmont Swansea United
1 : 0
Broadmeadow Magic FC
13 Jun
Weston Workers Bears
2 : 2
Belmont Swansea United
05 Jun
Cooks Hill United
1 : 3
Belmont Swansea United
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Thornton Redbacks

(Away)
09 Aug
Thornton Redbacks
1 : 2
Wallsend Red Devils
05 Aug
Cessnock City Hornets
2 : 0
Thornton Redbacks
19 Jul
Thornton Redbacks
3 : 3
South Cardiff
13 Jul
Thornton Redbacks
1 : 1
Singleton Strikers
08 Jul
Thornton Redbacks
1 : 4
West Wallsend FC
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Belmont Swansea United24182485:2356
2Kahibah24142863:3444
3Toronto Awaba Stags24118552:3441
4West Wallsend FC24115848:4138
5Singleton Strikers24105940:3835
6South Cardiff24931236:5330
7Cessnock City Hornets24921339:5529
8Thornton Redbacks24671136:5725
9Wallsend Red Devils24222028:928
Promotion - NPL Northern NSW 2025 (Main)
Promotion - NPL Northern NSW 2024 (Relegation)