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Stadium Background

Bembibre vs Arandina

Spain Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 8 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

29' Event
Benlloch S.
73' Event
Lorenzo A.

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Tercera RFEF - Group 8 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

28%
Bembibre
35%
Draws
37%
Arandina
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Arandina

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

37% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Arandina lately — more wins on the board than Bembibre.
  • 37% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.6%
Bembibre Clean Sheet 15%
Arandina Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Bembibre Arandina
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 6 8
Draws 9 9
Losses 15 13
Goals Scored 1 1
Goals Conceded 1.6 1.33
Expected Goals (xG) 1.31 1.56
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 26, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 8
Arandina vs Bembibre
3:3
Dec 20, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 8
Bembibre vs Arandina
1:1
Feb 2, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 8
Bembibre vs Arandina
1:0
Sep 21, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 8
Arandina vs Bembibre
2:0
Mar 5, 2023 Tercera RFEF - Group 8
Bembibre vs Arandina
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Bembibre Compare

Top Goalscorer Lorenzo A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.01
Avg xA / game 0.66

Arandina Compare

Top Goalscorer Benlloch S.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.42
Avg xA / game 0.87

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Bembibre 35 / 100
Arandina 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Bembibre Arandina

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Arandina Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Arandina let in goals in 80% of their last 30 matches.

Bembibre found the back of the net in 67% of recent matches (30 games).

H2H data points to 2.80 goals as a typical output.

Solid form: Bembibre remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Bembibre VS Arandina
1.13 Goals Scored 1.38
1.75 Goals Conceded 1.5
88% Over 1.5 100%
50% Over 2.5 38%
50% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Bembibre

(Home)
10 May
Palencia CF
4 : 1
Bembibre
02 May
Bembibre
4 : 1
Becerril
26 Apr
Arandina
3 : 3
Bembibre
18 Apr
Mirandes B
2 : 2
Bembibre
11 Apr
Bembibre
2 : 2
Santa Marta Tormes
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Arandina

(Away)
10 May
Becerril
2 : 0
Arandina
02 May
Arandina
2 : 1
Mirandes B
26 Apr
Arandina
3 : 3
Bembibre
18 Apr
Santa Marta Tormes
1 : 1
Arandina
11 Apr
Arandina
3 : 1
La Virgen
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Atletico Tordesillas 34 24 6 4 62:24 78
2 Guijuelo 34 21 7 6 54:26 70
3 Palencia CA 34 21 5 8 48:24 68
4 Palencia CF 34 20 4 10 59:39 64
5 Santa Marta Tormes 34 18 8 8 53:31 62
6 Mansilles 34 15 12 7 31:27 57
7 Almazan 34 12 12 10 49:38 48
8 Mirandes B 34 13 8 13 43:35 47
9 La Virgen 34 12 8 14 31:37 44
10 Villaralbo 34 11 9 14 29:37 42
11 Leonesa B 34 12 6 16 38:43 42
12 Arandina 34 9 10 15 32:46 37
13 Colegios Diocesanos 34 10 6 18 33:54 36
14 Bembibre 34 8 10 16 38:52 34
15 Unionistas de Salamanca B 34 6 13 15 32:43 31
16 CD Mojados 34 7 10 17 28:55 31
17 Becerril 34 7 8 19 41:60 29
18 Numancia B 34 6 6 22 26:56 24
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 8 2025/2026 (Play Offs)