Sport Picks

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Benfica vs Chiba

Macao Macao

Elite League
Our Tip

Match Events

41' Event
Ferreira M. M.
55' Event
Niki
84' Event
Niki

AI Match Summary

The Elite League game between Benfica and Chiba finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Benfica.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

51%
Benfica
15%
Draws
34%
Chiba
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Benfica

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Benfica haven't matched Chiba's recent run of results.
  • Model gives Benfica a 51% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Elite League form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 80%).
  • Benfica have won 2 of the last 3 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 80%
Over 3.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 25%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.4%
Benfica Clean Sheet 10%
Chiba Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Benfica Chiba
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 12 16
Draws 4 5
Losses 14 9
Goals Scored 2.2 2.73
Goals Conceded 2.1 1.53
Expected Goals (xG) 2.13 1.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 28, 2026 Elite League
Benfica vs Chiba
2:1
Mar 14, 2026 Elite League
Chiba vs Benfica
2:2
Feb 28, 2025 Elite League
Chiba vs Benfica
3:4

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Benfica Compare

Top Goalscorer Niki
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.64
Avg xA / game 1.06

Chiba Compare

Top Goalscorer Ferreira M. M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.76
Avg xA / game 1.08

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Benfica 38 / 100
Chiba 26 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Benfica Chiba

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Benfica Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Games between these two average 4.67 goals.

Attacking prowess: Benfica scored in 70% of their last 30 outings.

Chiba let in goals in 70% of their last 30 matches.

Chiba lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Benfica VS Chiba
2.75 Goals Scored 2.13
1.75 Goals Conceded 1.5
88% Over 1.5 88%
88% Over 2.5 75%
75% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Benfica

(Home)
25 Jul
Benfica
4 : 5
Hang Sai
19 Jul
Benfica
10 : 0
University of Macau
10 Jul
Benfica
2 : 4
Shao Jiang
04 Jul
Must IPO
3 : 1
Benfica
28 Jun
Benfica
2 : 1
Chiba
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Chiba

(Away)
26 Jul
Chiba
0 : 5
Must IPO
19 Jul
Chiba
6 : 0
G. Universe
11 Jul
Gala
3 : 0
Chiba
05 Jul
Chiba
1 : 1
Cheng Fung
28 Jun
Benfica
2 : 1
Chiba
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