Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Benfica vs Policia

Macao Macao

Elite League 2021 Centro Desportivo Olímpico - Estádio, Taipa
Our Tip

Match Events

12' Event
Ranieri B.
37' Event
Ranieri B.
44' Event
Carlinhos Leonel

AI Match Summary

The Elite League 2021 game between Benfica and Policia finished 6-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Benfica.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

39%
Benfica
15%
Draws
46%
Policia
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Policia

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

39% / Low Confidence
  • Policia haven't matched Benfica's recent run of results.
  • Benfica are the model's pick here, at 60%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Benfica here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 66.6%
Benfica Clean Sheet 10%
Policia Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Benfica Policia
Matches Played 46 25
Wins 28 7
Draws 4 5
Losses 14 13
Goals Scored 3.72 1.04
Goals Conceded 1.5 1.84
Expected Goals (xG) 1.48 1.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 27, 2022 Elite League
Policia vs Benfica
0:0
Jul 11, 2021 Elite League
Policia vs Benfica
0:3
Apr 24, 2021 Elite League
Benfica vs Policia
6:0
Sep 26, 2020 Elite League
Policia vs Benfica
0:4
Jun 27, 2019 Elite League
Policia vs Benfica
0:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Benfica Compare

Top Goalscorer Carlinhos Leonel
3 Goals
Assists Leader Ranieri B.
2 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.74

Policia Compare

Avg xG / game 1.76
Avg xA / game 1.08

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Benfica 56 / 100
Policia 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Benfica Policia

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Benfica Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Benfica found the back of the net in 80% of recent matches (46 games).

Games between these two average 3.20 goals.

Policia's defensive record shows goals conceded in 76% of 25 matches.

Benfica has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Benfica VS -
1.75 Goals Scored 0
2.88 Goals Conceded 0
100% Over 1.5 0%
88% Over 2.5 0%
63% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Benfica

(Home)
25 Jul
Benfica
4 : 5
Hang Sai
19 Jul
Benfica
10 : 0
University of Macau
10 Jul
Benfica
2 : 4
Shao Jiang
04 Jul
Must IPO
3 : 1
Benfica
28 Jun
Benfica
2 : 1
Chiba
Page 1 of 10

Policia

(Away)
13 Nov
Policia
0 : 3
Lun Lok
31 Jul
Policia
2 : 2
Hang Sai
24 Jul
Policia
1 : 0
Cheng Fung
17 Jul
Monte Carlo
0 : 2
Policia
11 Jul
Policia
0 : 3
Benfica
Page 1 of 5

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Must IPO 18 18 0 0 115:4 54
2 Benfica 18 15 0 3 91:15 45
3 Tak Chun Ka I 18 11 2 5 29:30 35
4 Cheng Fung 18 10 0 8 40:44 30
5 Lun Lok 18 6 3 9 26:55 21
6 Sporting Macau 18 6 2 10 33:45 20
7 Policia 18 4 5 9 17:33 17
8 Casa de Portugal 18 4 4 10 22:68 16
9 Monte Carlo 18 2 6 10 14:46 12
10 Hang Sai 18 2 2 14 12:59 8
Promotion - AFC Cup 2022 (Qualification)