Sport Picks

Spain

Segunda RFEF - Group 1 2025/2026

UD Ourense

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Bergantinos play UD Ourense in the Segunda RFEF - Group 1 2025/2026. It looks like a close match. Recently, Bergantinos averaged 1.22 goals scored and 1.03 conceded. UD Ourense averaged 1.33 goals scored and 0.97 conceded. In past meetings, Bergantinos won 2, UD Ourense won 2, and they drew 1. Their last match on Apr 26, 2026 ended 1:3. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.38 for Bergantinos and 1.38 for UD Ourense. This points to a UD Ourense double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

34%

Bergantinos

23%

Draws

43%

UD Ourense

Draw rate projection: 23% Favored: UD Ourense

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

73% / Medium Confidence

Bergantinos picked up more points recently compared to UD Ourense.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.38 vs 1.38 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 55%

Over 2.5 Goals 42%

Over 3.5 Goals 25%

Over 4.5 Goals 13%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 42%

Bergantinos Clean Sheet 17%

UD Ourense Clean Sheet 10%

First Half Goal 50%

Second Half Goal 52%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Bergantinos	UD Ourense
Matches Played	32	30
Wins	13	16
Draws	7	8
Losses	12	6
Goals Scored	1.22	1.33
Goals Conceded	1.03	0.97
Expected Goals (xG)	1.88	1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.13	0.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 26, 2026 Segunda RFEF - Group 1

Bergantinos vs UD Ourense

Possession: 55% - 48% Cards: 2 - 2

1:3

Nov 23, 2025 Segunda RFEF - Group 1

UD Ourense vs Bergantinos

Possession: 58% - 58% Cards: 1 - 3

1:0

Apr 27, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 1

Bergantinos vs UD Ourense

Possession: 41% - 58% Cards: 1 - 4

3:1

Dec 16, 2023 Tercera RFEF - Group 1

UD Ourense vs Bergantinos

Possession: 47% - 41% Cards: 1 - 3

0:1

Mar 19, 2020 Tercera RFEF - Group 1

Bergantinos vs UD Ourense

Possession: 50% - 47% Cards: 1 - 1

0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Bergantinos Compare

Top Goalscorer Tassembedo Y.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 1.45

Avg xA / game 0.94

UD Ourense Compare

Top Goalscorer Puime L.

1 Goals

Assists Leader Nunez M.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 1.48

Avg xA / game 0.91

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Bergantinos 34 / 100

UD Ourense 41 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Bergantinos UD Ourense

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: UD Ourense or Draw (X2)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Draw (HT)

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +30.9%

3.85

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +16.8%

2.78

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Bergantinos attacking → ← attacking UD Ourense

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Bergantinos scored in 59% of their last 32 games.

UD Ourense let in goals in 60% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

Bergantinos went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

UD Ourense lost 0 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

46 Points in last 5 56

1.88 Goals expected (xG) 1.63

1.13 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.88

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Deportivo Fabril	34	20	9	5	59:22	69
2	Real Oviedo B	34	16	10	8	50:35	58
3	Numancia	34	15	11	8	46:31	56
4	UD Ourense	34	15	10	9	40:34	55
5	Coruxo FC	34	15	7	12	46:37	52
6	Gimnastica Segoviana	34	14	9	11	37:36	51
7	Real Avila	34	14	8	12	48:52	50
8	Salamanca CF UDS	34	14	8	12	43:36	50
9	Rayo Cantabria	34	11	15	8	63:50	48
10	Bergantinos	34	13	9	12	44:37	48
11	Atletico Astorga	34	12	9	13	41:43	45
12	Marino De Luanco	34	11	12	11	31:26	45
13	Valladolid Promesas	34	12	9	13	59:58	45
14	Langreo	34	11	10	13	35:41	43
15	Sarriana	34	11	7	16	42:42	40
16	Burgos CF B	34	8	12	14	38:55	36
17	Lealtad	34	7	7	20	31:54	28
18	UD Samano	34	3	6	25	23:87	15