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Betlemi Keda vs FC Gardabani

Georgia Georgia

Liga 3
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Betlemi Keda play FC Gardabani in the Liga 3. It looks like a close match. Recently, Betlemi Keda averaged 1.22 goals scored and 2.38 conceded. FC Gardabani averaged 1.03 goals scored and 2.39 conceded. In past meetings, Betlemi Keda won 4, FC Gardabani won 1, and they drew 0. Their last match on Apr 9, 2026 ended 1:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.75 for Betlemi Keda and 1.75 for FC Gardabani. This points to a Betlemi Keda double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

47%
Betlemi Keda
15%
Draws
38%
FC Gardabani
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Betlemi Keda

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

73% / Medium Confidence
  • Betlemi Keda picked up more points recently compared to FC Gardabani.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.75 vs 1.75 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 66%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 81%
Over 2.5 Goals 66%
Over 3.5 Goals 40%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 47%
Betlemi Keda Clean Sheet 12%
FC Gardabani Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 73%
Second Half Goal 77%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Betlemi Keda FC Gardabani
Matches Played 32 31
Wins 7 7
Draws 5 5
Losses 20 19
Goals Scored 1.22 1.03
Goals Conceded 2.38 2.39
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.25 2.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 9, 2026 Liga 3
Betlemi Keda vs FC Gardabani
1:0
Sep 5, 2025 Liga 3
Betlemi Keda vs FC Gardabani
4:1
Apr 4, 2025 Liga 3
FC Gardabani vs Betlemi Keda
1:3
Nov 21, 2024 Liga 3
FC Gardabani vs Betlemi Keda
5:1
May 30, 2024 Liga 3
Betlemi Keda vs FC Gardabani
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Betlemi Keda Compare

Top Goalscorer Ashba S.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.44

FC Gardabani Compare

Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Betlemi Keda 45 / 100
FC Gardabani 36 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Betlemi Keda FC Gardabani

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Betlemi Keda or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +20.3%
2.56
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +10.2%
1.67
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Betlemi Keda attacking → ← attacking FC Gardabani

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Betlemi Keda scored in 59% of their last 32 games.

FC Gardabani let in goals in 81% of their last 31 matches.

Games between these two average 3.40 goals.

Betlemi Keda went unbeaten in 1 of their last 5 games.

FC Gardabani lost 5 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

26 Points in last 5 26
0.88 Goals expected (xG) 1.25
2.25 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 2.63

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1FC Tbilisi 202515123040:839
2Guria15103242:1033
3Iberia 1999 21594225:931
4Gonio1593325:1130
5Orbi1582526:1526
6Merani Tbilisi1574421:1625
7Didube1574422:1825
8WIT Georgia1573521:1424
9Dinamo Tbilisi 21553718:1818
10Khobi1552820:2817
11Locomotive Tbilisi1544714:2116
12Margveti 20061551915:3016
13FC Gardabani1534814:3013
14Iveria Khashuri1516813:289
15Betlemi Keda1523109:339
16FC Iberia 2010 Tbilisi1503128:443