Sport Picks

Stadium Background

BFA Vilnius vs FK Atmosfera

Lithuania Lithuania

I Lyga
Our Tip

Match Events

9' Event
Funami Y.
51' Event
Funami Y.
55' Event
Funami Y.

AI Match Summary

FK Atmosfera in this I Lyga matchup, with the score ending 0-5 — backing the pre-match view that favored FK Atmosfera.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

45%
BFA Vilnius
35%
Draws
20%
FK Atmosfera
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: BFA Vilnius

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

45% / Medium Confidence
  • FK Atmosfera haven't matched BFA Vilnius's recent run of results.
  • BFA Vilnius are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 25%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.6%
BFA Vilnius Clean Sheet 19%
FK Atmosfera Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric BFA Vilnius FK Atmosfera
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 15 11
Draws 5 7
Losses 9 11
Goals Scored 1.52 1.59
Goals Conceded 1.41 1.34
Expected Goals (xG) 2.06 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 19, 2026 I Lyga
FK Atmosfera vs BFA Vilnius
1:1
May 16, 2026 I Lyga
BFA Vilnius vs FK Atmosfera
0:5
Nov 9, 2025 I Lyga
FK Atmosfera vs BFA Vilnius
2:2
Jun 28, 2025 I Lyga
BFA Vilnius vs FK Atmosfera
1:0
Oct 13, 2024 I Lyga
BFA Vilnius vs FK Atmosfera
0:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

BFA Vilnius Compare

Avg xG / game 1.58
Avg xA / game 1.03

FK Atmosfera Compare

Top Goalscorer Funami Y.
3 Goals
Assists Leader Gritkus E.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

BFA Vilnius 85 / 100
FK Atmosfera 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
BFA Vilnius FK Atmosfera

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick BFA Vilnius Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

FK Atmosfera let in goals in 83% of their last 29 matches.

Recent resilience: BFA Vilnius stayed unbeaten in 5 of the last 5 games.

BFA Vilnius's goal record stands at 69% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

H2H data points to 2.80 goals as a typical output.

Scoring Trends

BFA Vilnius VS FK Atmosfera
2.25 Goals Scored 1.63
0.88 Goals Conceded 1.88
75% Over 1.5 100%
63% Over 2.5 63%
50% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

BFA Vilnius

(Home)
19 Sept
FK Atmosfera
1 : 1
BFA Vilnius
12 Sept
Garliava
2 : 3
BFA Vilnius
04 Sept
BFA Vilnius
2 : 1
FK Babrungas
28 Aug
Tauras Taurage
2 : 2
BFA Vilnius
22 Aug
BFA Vilnius
2 : 0
Neptunas
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FK Atmosfera

(Away)
19 Sept
FK Atmosfera
1 : 1
BFA Vilnius
11 Sept
FK Babrungas
3 : 2
FK Atmosfera
05 Sept
FK Atmosfera
3 : 1
Tauras Taurage
29 Aug
Neptunas
3 : 1
FK Atmosfera
22 Aug
Dainava Alytus
1 : 1
FK Atmosfera
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 FK Minija 24 21 1 2 63:13 64
2 FK Babrungas 25 19 4 2 43:11 61
3 BE1 NFA 24 16 2 6 44:24 50
4 Neptunas 25 14 2 9 33:30 44
5 BFA Vilnius 25 13 4 8 39:35 43
6 Zalgiris 2 25 13 4 8 38:32 43
7 Tauras Taurage 25 13 4 8 43:31 43
8 Dainava Alytus 24 11 7 6 34:23 40
9 FK Atmosfera 24 8 6 10 37:33 30
10 Jonava 25 7 6 12 28:33 27
11 Garliava 24 7 4 13 29:27 25
12 FK Kauno Zalgiris 2 24 7 1 16 23:38 22
13 Transinvest 2 25 6 3 16 29:58 21
14 Hegelmann Litauen 2 25 6 1 18 26:59 19
15 Siauliai 2 25 4 5 16 27:56 17
16 Ekranas 25 4 2 19 25:58 14
Promotion - TOPLYGA 2027 (Main)
Promotion - TOPLYGA (Relegation)
Relegation - I Lyga (Relegation)