Sport Picks

Latvia

Virsliga Stadions Celtnieks

BFC Daugavpils

3 - 1

FK Liepaja

Our Tip

Match Events

25'

Sub

Mushindi I. In: Rodolphe E.

Out: Mushindi I.

41'

Sylla M.

Assist: Traore A.

46'

Sub

Amatkarijo C. In: Gueye D.

Out: Amatkarijo C.

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

BFC Daugavpils in this Virsliga matchup, with the score ending 3-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored BFC Daugavpils.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

30%

BFC Daugavpils

39%

Draws

31%

FK Liepaja

Draw rate projection: 39% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / Medium Confidence

FK Liepaja have won more games recently than BFC Daugavpils.
Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
Regular Virsliga form gives a decent read on both sides.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 82%

Over 2.5 Goals 78%

Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%

Over 4.5 Goals 14%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73%

BFC Daugavpils Clean Sheet 20%

FK Liepaja Clean Sheet 13%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	BFC Daugavpils	FK Liepaja
Matches Played	29	30
Wins	9	12
Draws	6	4
Losses	14	14
Goals Scored	0.88	1.38
Goals Conceded	0.88	1.38
Expected Goals (xG)	0.88	1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	0.88	1.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 4, 2026 Virsliga

BFC Daugavpils vs FK Liepaja

Possession: 50% - 53% Cards: 2 - 0

3:1

May 17, 2026 Virsliga

FK Liepaja vs BFC Daugavpils

Possession: 56% - 49% Cards: 1 - 3

2:1

Apr 3, 2026 Virsliga

BFC Daugavpils vs FK Liepaja

Possession: 47% - 50% Cards: 3 - 3

2:0

Nov 2, 2025 Virsliga

BFC Daugavpils vs FK Liepaja

Possession: 42% - 42% Cards: 4 - 4

1:2

Aug 16, 2025 Latvian Cup

BFC Daugavpils vs FK Liepaja

Possession: 48% - 45% Cards: 4 - 3

1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

BFC Daugavpils Compare

Top Goalscorer Sylla M.

3 Goals

Avg xG / game 0.68

Avg xA / game 0.44

FK Liepaja Compare

Top Goalscorer Gueye D.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 1.25

Avg xA / game 0.77

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

BFC Daugavpils 31 / 100

FK Liepaja 31 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

BFC Daugavpils FK Liepaja

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick BFC Win (1)

Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes

Correct Score 2:1

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

FK Liepaja has conceded goals in 83% of their last 30 outings.

BFC Daugavpils found the back of the net in 69% of recent matches (29 games).

These sides typically produce 3.00 goals when they meet.

BFC Daugavpils has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

BFC Daugavpils VS FK Liepaja

0.88 Goals Scored 1.38

0.88 Goals Conceded 1.38

50% Over 1.5 75%

25% Over 2.5 63%

25% Over 3.5 38%

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	RFS	22	18	2	2	54:16	56
2	Riga FC	22	17	4	1	65:19	55
3	FK Auda Riga	22	12	4	6	37:26	40
4	FK Liepaja	22	8	4	10	28:34	28
5	BFC Daugavpils	22	7	6	9	25:29	27
6	Jelgava	22	6	7	9	24:38	25
7	Super Nova	22	7	3	12	23:35	24
8	Grobina	22	4	8	10	15:33	20
9	Tukums 2000	22	3	8	11	37:44	17
10	Ogre United	22	3	4	15	21:55	13