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Biala Podlaska vs Busko-Zdroj - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Poland Poland

III Liga - Group IV
Our Tip

Match Events

54' Event
Popiela J.
68' Event
Kosieradzki J.
80' Event
Maluga D.

AI Match Summary

The III Liga - Group IV game between Biala Podlaska and Busko-Zdroj finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Biala Podlaska.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

26%
Biala Podlaska
15%
Draws
59%
Busko-Zdroj
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Busko-Zdroj

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

59% / Medium Confidence
  • Biala Podlaska carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
  • Regular III Liga - Group IV form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 79%
Biala Podlaska Clean Sheet 20%
Busko-Zdroj Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Biala Podlaska Busko-Zdroj
Matches Played 29 20
Wins 10 6
Draws 10 4
Losses 9 10
Goals Scored 1.76 1.65
Goals Conceded 1.34 2.15
Expected Goals (xG) 1.20 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 19, 2026 III Liga - Group IV
Biala Podlaska vs Busko-Zdroj
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Biala Podlaska Compare

Top Goalscorer Kosieradzki J.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Maluga D.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.6

Busko-Zdroj Compare

Top Goalscorer Popiela J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Biala Podlaska 32 / 100
Busko-Zdroj 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Biala Podlaska Busko-Zdroj

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Busko-Zdroj Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Busko-Zdroj let in goals in 90% of their last 20 matches.

Attacking prowess: Biala Podlaska scored in 79% of their last 29 outings.

H2H data points to 3.00 goals as a typical output.

Solid form: Biala Podlaska remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Biala Podlaska VS Busko-Zdroj
0.88 Goals Scored 1.5
1.13 Goals Conceded 2
75% Over 1.5 100%
38% Over 2.5 88%
0% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Biala Podlaska

(Home)
01 Oct
Biala Podlaska
2 : 2
Star Starachowice
26 Sept
Chelmianka Chelm
2 : 1
Biala Podlaska
19 Sept
Siarka Tarnobrzeg
2 : 0
Biala Podlaska
11 Sept
Biala Podlaska
2 : 1
KS Wieczysta Krakow II
06 Sept
Wisloka Debica
1 : 0
Biala Podlaska
Page 1 of 6

Busko-Zdroj

(Away)
04 Oct
Busko-Zdroj
3 : 0
Wisla II
26 Sept
Naprzod Jedrzejow
4 : 1
Busko-Zdroj
19 Sept
Busko-Zdroj
2 : 1
Moravia Morawica
12 Sept
Pogon-Sokol Lubaczow
2 : 1
Busko-Zdroj
06 Sept
Busko-Zdroj
2 : 1
Wislanie Skawina
Page 1 of 4

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Chelmianka Chelm 11 8 3 0 18:5 27
2 Wisloka Debica 11 7 1 3 16:13 22
3 Naprzod Jedrzejow 11 6 2 3 27:21 20
4 Ostrowiec Swietokrzyski 11 5 5 1 16:9 20
5 Czarni Polaniec 11 6 2 3 18:16 20
6 Wislanie Skawina 11 5 2 4 15:11 17
7 Jaroslaw 11 5 2 4 27:20 17
8 Siarka Tarnobrzeg 11 4 2 5 14:15 14
9 Hetman Zamosc 11 3 5 3 20:20 14
10 Busko-Zdroj 11 4 2 5 17:21 14
11 Kolbuszowa Dolna 11 2 7 2 12:12 13
12 Wisla II 11 3 4 4 13:16 13
13 Biala Podlaska 11 3 3 5 10:13 12
14 Korona Kielce II 11 3 2 6 23:27 11
15 Star Starachowice 11 2 5 4 13:17 11
16 KS Wieczysta Krakow II 11 3 2 6 10:14 11
17 Moravia Morawica 11 2 2 7 13:22 8
18 Pogon-Sokol Lubaczow 11 2 1 8 11:21 7
Promotion - Division 2 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - Division 2 (Relegation - Play Offs)