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Birkenhead vs Hamilton - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

New Zealand New Zealand

Chatham Cup 2012
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

This match ends 4-1, with Birkenhead advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

34%
Birkenhead
15%
Draws
51%
Hamilton
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Hamilton

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

15% / Low Confidence
  • Hamilton haven't matched Birkenhead's recent run of results.
  • Model gives Birkenhead a 42% chance of winning this.
  • Birkenhead have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Birkenhead, who have won 2 of the last 2 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 82.2%
Birkenhead Clean Sheet 20%
Hamilton Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Birkenhead Hamilton
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 15 10
Draws 2 7
Losses 12 11
Goals Scored 2.24 1.64
Goals Conceded 2.03 1.89
Expected Goals (xG) 1.92 1.19
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 29, 2013 Chatham Cup
Birkenhead vs Hamilton
3:1
Jul 8, 2012 Chatham Cup
Birkenhead vs Hamilton
4:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Birkenhead 42 / 100
Hamilton 36 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Birkenhead Hamilton

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Birkenhead's goal record stands at 93% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Hamilton's defensive record shows goals conceded in 89% of 28 matches.

These sides typically produce 4.50 goals when they meet.

Solid form: Birkenhead remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Birkenhead VS -
2.63 Goals Scored 0
1.38 Goals Conceded 0
100% Over 1.5 0%
100% Over 2.5 0%
38% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Birkenhead

(Home)
27 Sept
Birkenhead
0 : 4
Cashmere Technical
07 Dec
Birkenhead
3 : 1
Western Springs
29 Nov
Wellington Phoenix 2
2 : 3
Birkenhead
23 Nov
Birkenhead
1 : 4
Miramar
15 Nov
Auckland United
3 : 2
Birkenhead
Page 1 of 6

Hamilton

(Away)
29 Jul
Hamilton
0 : 3
Christchurch
09 Jul
Hamilton
3 : 2
Ngaruawahia AFC
20 Aug
Eastern Suburbs
1 : 0
Hamilton
30 Jul
Miramar
3 : 4
Hamilton
09 Jul
Auckland United
0 : 1
Hamilton
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/8-finals
Miramar 4
Stop Out SC 0
Dunedin 1
Western AFC 0
Three Kings 2
Central United 3
Melville 0
Eastern Suburbs 1
Caversham 4
Cashmere Technical 2
Manukau City 2
Papatoetoe 1
Birkenhead 4
Hamilton 1
Lower Hutt City 2
Napier City 0
Quarter-finals
Miramar 5
Dunedin 1
Central United 2
Eastern Suburbs 0
Caversham 3
Manukau City 1
Birkenhead 2
Lower Hutt City 3
Semi-finals
Miramar 0
Central United 6
Caversham 0
Lower Hutt City 4
Final
Central United 6
Lower Hutt City 1